New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters Prediction: Wahs to take charge at 11/4

The Sydney Roosters were the talk of the round last week with their stunning victory over the four-time reigning champions, but on Friday they come head-to-head with a New Zealand Warriors outfit who are notoriously difficult to encounter at Mount Smart Stadium (07:00 GMT, 20:00 local).

That 38-32 win over the Penrith Panthers makes the Roosters a different prospect ahead of round three, but does one swallow make an entire NRL campaign? Here are my New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters predictions, with the latest team news and match odds from Betfred.

New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters Odds

The oddsmakers have clearly been stung by the Roosters’ shock win last week, and they’ll make no such allowances again for this one. So much so, both sides are slight odds-on for Friday’s clash.

There’s very little in it, with the Warriors narrow favourites at 10/11 and the Roosters 20/21 for the win. The draw is a 20/1 shot, so I think it’s in the handicap markets where the real value will be found.

Any start handed to the Roosters gives us an odds-against bet for the Warriors, with even a two-point handicap putting Andrew Webster’s side at 21/20, implying a 48.8% probability of them winning by three or more.

That extends to 19/10 (34.5%) for an eight-point start and 11/4 (26.7%) if you fancy the Warriors to overcome a 12-point loss.

Team News

The Warriors are shorn of Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, whose wrist fracture in pre-season will keep him out for the foreseeable future.

Other than that existing issue, head coach Andrew Webster has only playing form to consider in his selection this week, and after swatting aside the Manly Sea Eagles last week he has not been minded to make too many changes.

Bunty Afoa, Freddy Lussick, Rocco Berry, Te Maire Martin and 18th man Jacob Laban are brought into contention but the original 17 looks set to be the same one which triumphed 36-16 last week at Mount Smart. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava is omitted from the 22-player squad.

Rugby League Odds

Not only do the Roosters travel across the Tasman Sea with increased belief after last week’s win, they also have a boosted squad to choose from.

Victor Radley is back after suffering concussion in the round-one defeat to the Brisbane Broncos, while Spencer Leniu returns from suspension and Lindsay Collins have overcome an illness to be in contention.

The one bit of bad news is that Salesi Foketi will serve a full two-game ban after his appeal to have his suspension for a high tackle downgraded was unsuccessful.

Hugo Savala drops to 18th-man status, while Makahesi Makatoa and Taylor Losalu are reserves.

Handicap 3-way Alternative 4: Warriors -12 @ 11/4

Maybe I’m missing something, but I just can’t see this ending up as close as the odds have it.

Sure, the Warriors were poor in Las Vegas in round one when being easily dealt with by the Canberra Raiders, but they put up a convincing win against a really good Manly Sea Eagles side just a week ago and are rarely far off it on their home track.

There have been questions about Webster’s coaching after a down year in 2024, but they were excellent in ’23 and even last year in a season which saw them miss out on the play-offs they had a winning record at home.

And I’m not about to write off the Roosters’ performance last week as a one-off, but this remains a foreboding fixture and I can see the Warriors cashing in to the tune of a three-score win.

I could go on the safer side, with the two-point start offering odds-against and an eight-point marker set for 19/10. But I’m confident that the Wahs will have too much for the Roosters to the tune of 13+ points.

Double Result: Warriors-Warriors @ 6/4

If you fancy the Warriors for a win, you’ve generally got to believe they’ll start well.

A sizeable 66.7% of their wins last season (six of nine) came after building a half-time lead, while in their run to the Preliminary Final two years back that figure was 70.6% (12 of 17).

So I’m going with the percentages here. The 6/4 implies a 40% chance of the Wahs turning a 40-minute edge into a win. And while that stands at a pretty fair marker, if you’re assuming a Warriors victory then the numbers are with you in this market.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.