New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction: 21/10 and 7/2 tips for Wahs win

The New Zealand Warriors will be looking for a return to winning form on Saturday when they welcome the Brisbane Broncos to Mount Smart Stadium in round seven of the NRL Premiership (kick-off 08:30 BST, 19:30 local).

Michael Maguire’s side are also smarting from a loss having gone down to the Sydney Roosters last week, and my New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos predictions will account for that desperation to bounce back as much as anything. Read on for my preview, the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos Odds

The markets for this one look like they’re built for two clubs at opposite ends of the ladder, not a pair of sides sat on eight points after six rounds.

The Warriors are an attractive 21/10 to win the match, with their 42-14 shellacking at the hands of the Melbourne Storm last week having undermined their early-season form.

Conversely, the Broncos are a narrow 2/5, so if you fancy them for the win then the handicap market will be the place to find some value.

The standard two-way offering gives the Warriors an 8.5-point advantage, and under those conditions the home side are 4/5 with the Broncos 20/21 to overcome the start.

Team News

James Fisher-Harris misses out for the Wahs due to a pec injury, with Jackson Ford replacing him at prop and Jacob Laban stepping up to the interchange bench.

There’s no Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad either, with the full-back the subject of concussion protocols. That gives Taine Tuaupiki the number-one jersey, with Ed Kosi stepping in at winger.

Rocco Berry is unavailable due to suspension, meaning Kurt Capewell starts at centre and Leka Halasima comes into the back row.

Te Maire Martin is on the bench for a potential first Premiership appearance since the defeat to the Dolphins in round 23 last year.

Michael Maguire makes a single change for the Broncos, with Jordan Riki returning from suspension at the same time as Jack Gosiewski sits out a one-match ban of his own.

Gosiewski has bigger problems, though, with a broken arm suffered in training expected to keep him out for eight weeks following surgery.

Top tryscorer Jesse Arthars is cleared to play after having his concussion status downgraded, while Tyson Smoothy comes onto the bench for Martin Taupau.

Rugby League Odds

Warriors to win @ 21/10

Maybe I’m watching a different Warriors to the side the oddsmakers have been observing so far in 2025, but I’m more than happy to go with the 21/10 available for a home win.

The Wahs, who are notoriously tougher to beat at Mount Smart than they can be on their travels, have already seen off the Manly Sea Eagles and Sydney Roosters at home this term and I fancy them to have a good go at the Broncos too.

Sure, Brizzie have looked slick at times but not slapping a hopeless Roosters in round one have they seemed particularly convincing. Since then they have beaten the Cowboys, Dolphins and Tigers, but none of the teams on the receiving end so far have been world-beaters.

And a big Easter weekend with a decent crowd barracking for the home-town Warriors sets the scene for a big performance from Andrew Webster’s side in my mind.

The 21/10 odds imply a 32.3% probability of the Warriors winning this one, and I think that’s incredibly low.

Double Result: Warriors-Warriors @ 7/2

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, just shy of 80 per cent of the Warriors’ wins at Mount Smart have come off the back of a half-time lead. What we can deduce from that is that they normally come out firing and build from there.

It certainly feels like that too when you’re watching them in their natural habitat. So while many are backing the Broncos and expecting them to make a run from here, I fancy the Warriors to take another scalp on home soil in what remains a wide-open NRL Premiership ladder seven weeks in.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.