Leeds Rhinos vs Castleford Tigers Prediction: Not backing Leeds despite plum Lumb bet

Winless Castleford Tigers head to AMT Headingley on Sunday for a West Yorkshire derby against a Leeds Rhinos side still buzzing from a convincing away win at Salford Red Devils (kick-off 15:00 GMT)

The Rhinos suffered some key injuries in that win however, so could the Tigers produce an unlikely victory to kickstart their own Betfred Super League season? Here are my Leeds Rhinos vs Castleford Tigers predictions, taking into account full team news and Betfred's match odds.

Rugby League Odds

Brad Arthur's Rhinos are massive favourites to get the job done on home turf, with their 1/11 price for the win in 80 minutes making the handicap markets the place to look if you're backing Leeds for the victory. They're 10/11 in the standard two-way bracket when playing against an 18.5-point disadvantage, with the Tigers 5/6 under those conditions.

Cas are 13/2 for the straight win in 80 minutes, at an implied 13.3% probability, with 25/1 about the draw.

Super League's all-time record tryscorer Ryan Hall is the 6/1 favoured chance for the first try of the afternoon.

Team News

Leeds fell behind early at Salford last week but ultimately dominated the game to produce a comfortable first win of the campaign. At what cost, however?

Playmaker Brodie Croft was knocked out against his former club and a lengthy stoppage appeared to indicate a serious injury. I was in the tunnel area at the Salford Community Stadium and Croft was receiving oxygen when he was stretchered past me. It was something of a surprise therefore when he re-emerged during the second half and was walking and talking. He misses out this week through the head injury assessment protocols.

Also missing is loose forward Cameron Smith, who left Salford in a moon boot following an ankle injury, while scrum-half Matt Frawley is a doubt after suffering a serious gashed hand during the game - he had stitches and played on with painkillers but it was a bit of a mess when I saw the hand after the game!

Better news for Leeds sees the returns of England prop Mikolaj Oledzki and utility Jack Sinfield.

Castleford's big news story of the week was the release from his contract of veteran forward Liam Watts. His place in Danny McGuire's initial 21-man squad goes to George Hill in the only change made following the 46-6 defeat to St Helens.

Handicap 3-way Castleford Tigers +18 @ 1/1

So far this season I have backed Leeds to beat Wakefield and lose at Salford. The Rhinos lost at home to Wakefield and won well at Salford. So feel free to keep your distance on this one.

I fully expect a home win, with the Rhinos winning 32-4 in this fixture last year and 46-0 the season before. The weather is turning too, which makes flowing rugby more possible, but I'm still not expecting many teams to cut loose just yet.

Without Croft and Smith, Leeds have lost a bit of guile, not enough to give Castleford a chance, but I feel that the Tigers are already playing with a little desperation and that could be enough to keep this one under the handicap.

Riley Lumb anytime tryscorer @ 1/1

Leeds were sharp out wide against Salford last week and were clinical too, with youngster Riley Lumb getting on the end of two tries and veteran Ryan Hall also touching down.

There will be opportunities this week again for both and I'm backing Lumb to keep his scoring streak going in a fixture that Leeds tend to do well in.

Rugby League Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.