England vs Samoa Prediction: Home side fancied for decent win

International rugby league returns as England lock horns with Samoa (kick-off 14:30, BBC2) again with revenge on the menu in Wigan, after Shaun Wane's men tasted agonising World Cup semi-final defeat two years ago.

It's the first of a two-match series against Ben Gardiner's side as England look to restore pride in the national jersey. Below you can find my England vs Samoa predictions. 

Team news

England have reduced their initial training squad to 19 ahead of the game, with several big names left out of the squad.

Veteran prop Chris Hill, who has just completed a move to Salford Red Devils following his departure from Huddersfield, will not be involved in the first Test. Also omitted are Warrington hooker Danny Walker, NRL forward Morgan Smithies and the Super League's top try scorer Liam Marshall, with Wigan prop Luke Thompson absent through suspension after picking up a one-match ban in the Betfred Super League Grand Final.

Hill's absence is a surprise given he has been a standout performer in the national jersey under Wane, and has 41 caps and three World Cups to his name.

Walker's omission means we will probably see NRL star Victor Radley used as a back-up hooker to Daryl Clark, while there is a big call to be made in the halves with captain George Williams, Man of Steel Mikey Lewis, Grand Final winner Harry Smith and St Helens ace Jack Welsby all options, with the latter expected to be at full-back.

Matty Ashton and Dom Young are likely to be the wingers given Marshall's exclusion.

Samoa held an open training session in York this week ahead of the first game of their tour, with Penrith Panthers star Jarome Luai again the star attraction.

Fresh from helping the Panthers to a fourth successive NRL title, the livewire half-back will captain his country for the first time and was man-of-the-match in that dramatic golden-point win for his nation that knocked England out of their home World Cup in 2022.

Other men to look out for in an exciting squad include dual-code New Zealand star Roger Tuivasa-Sheck - who has scored three times against England for the Kiwis - and Aussie back row Jeremiah Nanai.

England vs Samoa Odds

England are 1/4 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 80%, while Samoa are available at 16/5 and a draw is 20/1.

Handicap 3-way England -12 @ 11/10

England have a strong squad out and should have decent momentum after the Super League playoffs. As such they are big favourites to claim a home win in Wigan.

I also have England opening the series with a win but feel it might be a little tighter than some are predicting. 

Both squads will have a strange balance between battle-hardened playoff players and a few weary, battered and bruised bodies, which means the usual long-haul travel effects could come into play. 

There is too much talent and experience in this Samoa squad to come into this one under-cooked but it is definitely worth remembering the stark contrast in the two performances Samoa put in against England at the World Cup two years ago.

The opening game in Newcastle saw a Samoa side just off the flight absolutely torn apart by a rampant England. A month later it was the tourists who gained the ultimate revenge with a stubborn semi-final win. 

Shaun Wane will no doubt have that ready to go as his teamtalk, and England will be massively fired up. As such I expect a big England start and a measure of control from there-on in. 

Samoa won't get blown away this time and I am sticking near the handicap with England to win by a couple of scores. 

Matty Ashton anytime try scorer @ 4/6

England's wingers can be the great entertainers in this series, with the rampaging Dom Young a devastating sight in full flow who has lit up his England shirt since breaking into the squad for the last World Cup.

And on the other wing I'm looking at Warrington flyer Matty Ashton who is in the form of his life for club and country. 

Ashton ran in 32 tries this season, second only to Marshall's 35, and his three England appearances last year yielded three tries. 

With Marshall breathing down his neck for a start in the second Test, I expect Ashton to take his chance here. 

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