Dolphins vs Wests Tigers Prediction: 13/8 looks good for defences winning out

After a resounding win in round two, the Wests Tigers head to a sold-out Kayo Stadium in Redcliffe on Saturday to meet a Dolphins outfit still searching for a first NRL Premiership win in 2025 (06:30 GMT, 16:30 local).

Benji Marshall’s Tigers were six-try winners over the Parramatta Eels last time out, but the Dolphins ought to revel in the atmosphere at their provincial home. My Dolphins vs Wests Tigers predictions follow with full team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Dolphins vs Wests Tigers Odds

Kristian Woolf’s home side are slight favourites, and one can’t help but feel that wouldn’t be the case if this game was being played at Leichhardt rather than in Redcliffe.

The Dolphins haven’t hit their straps yet, but the home advantage in front of a packed crowd helps them to a 4/5 price at an implied 55.6% probability. The visitors, meanwhile, are 11/10 for the win following on from last week’s first success of the campaign.

While the 20/1 about the draw shouldn’t be discounted given how tight this encounter could well prove to be, the handicap might also help to add a bit of value on a win either way.

The regular two-way start gives 1.5 points to Wests, who are 20/21 under those conditions against the Dolphins’ 5/6.

Team News

There are a couple of changes afoot for the Fins, with Jack Bostock returning to wing after knee trouble and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki added to the bench after passing concussion protocols.

It’s Josh Kerr and Junior Tupou who miss out from the side beaten by the Newcastle Knights last week.

Rugby League Odds

It would seem that Jahream Bula has made something of a miracle recovery, as Benji names the full-back in the number-one jersey for this one despite him having sustained what looked like a serious foot injury against Parramatta.

There is the fall-back option of Heath Mason available though, so Bula can be replaced by the 19th man if he doesn’t prove his fitness prior to kick-off.

All of which means it’s the same 17 for the time being for the Tigers, with Mason and Latu Fainu the ones set to make way from the pre-match 19 if Bula is good to go.

Handicap 3-way Alt 1: Tigers -2 @ 7/5

Without trying to react too much to the Tigers’ win over a pretty disappointing Eels, I’ve definitely seen more positive stuff from them than I have from the Dolphins to this point.

Even when going down to the Knights in week one they ran their visitors really close at Campbelltown, eventually being undone by Greg Marzhew’s try 15 minutes from time as their 8-0 lead turned into a 10-8 loss.

This is a changed Wests from the one which has three wooden spoons in its clubhouse from the last few seasons, and I can see them picking up the points in Redcliffe.

The 11/10 for the straight win is tempting, but I like the value offered by the two-point concession in this handicap market. It gives an implied probability of 41.7% for the guests to leave with a victory of three points or more, and I’m thinking that’s on the shy side.

Total points Alt 2: Under 41.5 @ 13/8

None of these sides’ games so far this season have featured 40 points, and with a tight fixture expected there ought not to be tries galore in this one either.

The Tigers are far tougher to break down in 2025 on current evidence, with just three tries and a total of 16 points conceded to date. That makes theirs the best defence in the country.

And even the 0-2 Dolphins have a top-six record defensively at time of writing, so I’m delighted to see the alternative market added for a lower-scoring bash on Saturday.

The 13/8 makes it 38.1% that these two will serve up fewer than 42 between them, but I’m going for another bruiser.

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