Cowboys vs Storm Predictions: Much-changed minor premiers set for chastening loss

The NRL’s newly-crowned minor premiers take their table-topping footy to Townsville on Thursday when the Melbourne Storm travel to face the North Queensland Cowboys at the Queensland Country Bank Stadium (kick-off 10:50 BST, 19:50 local, live on Watch NRL).

Craig Bellamy has named a shadow squad for the Round 26 clash, attracting ire from many aficionados. My Cowboys vs Storm predictions will have to bear in mind whether those 11 changes will make all the difference.

Cowboys vs Storm Odds

The nature of the changes made by the Storm has massively affected the odds-makers. Betfred have the Cowboys as big favourites to secure a win which would boost their position in the play-off wrangle.

The Cowboys are 1/4 to grab the victory in 80 minutes, with the Storm 16/5, probably as long as they have been all season. That’s an implied probability of 23.8% that Melbourne will gain the two points. The draw is 22/1.

Team News

The big news sees the Storm rest 11 players from the big win against the Dolphins last week, including the likes of Will Warbrick, Jahrome Hughes, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Harry Grant and Tui Kamikamica.

Coach Bellamy has bitten back at the criticism of his decision, saying:

“Four of our last five games are away from home, so that means not jumping in your car and going 20 minutes or 45 minutes for a game, it means jumping on a plane,” he blasted.

“I can understand people being critical of it, but at the end of the day that’s what we think is going to work best for us. Townsville is our longest away game, and on a five-day turnaround it is the ideal time to do it.”

Bellamy has named three potential debutants in his squad: Keegan Russell-Smith, Tristan Powell and Ativalu Lisati.

Rugby League Odds

The Cowboys’ selection is much more understated. Jason Taumalolo returns from a knee injury just in time for a tilt at the finals, with Jeremiah Nanai also coming back in the second row.

The two returnees replace Sam McIntyre and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki in the starting XIII, with the latter two reverting to the bench. Thomas Mikaele misses out on the matchday squad.

Cowboys to win by 21-25 points @ 15/2

It’s been a while since I’ve tipped any runaway league leaders to get a pasting, but here goes.

The Storm’s mass changes are understandable given the context of the short turnaround, long journey and focus on the finals to come. But the Cowboys still have plenty to play for despite having secured a play-off berth.

While a top-four spot is now unlikely, the difference between finishing fifth and seventh could be pivotal in their hopes of doing something memorable in the finals.

Currently sat in sixth, they’re in position to host the Manly Sea Eagles in the first round of the postseason, but they would probably much prefer hosting a run-down opposition who have left it all on the line to scrape into eighth in their first match. And that is the reward for the team finishing fifth.

So a win over the number-one side in the country could help them to nick that prized fifth spot from the Canterbury Bulldogs, and the motivation to lock in a home tie at the very least ought to be enough for the Cowboys to make the most of their weakened opposition with a bit to spare.

I can see a four-score difference in this one if Todd Payten’s troops are really up for it.

Cowboys to win both halves @ 21/20

Even if they don’t rack up quite the margin I’m envisaging, the Cowboys should be on top for the beefier part of the match.

To that end, I can see them holding a half-time advantage and adding to it in the second stanza.

Whether they quite make the winning margin I’m tipping, or go even further than that, the ‘win both halves’ market offers us a reasonable cover bet.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.