Cowboys vs Storm Prediction: Handicap underestimates the power of the Storm

The Melbourne Storm have a point to prove when they travel to the Queensland Country Bank Stadium on Saturday to face the North Queensland Cowboys in the NRL Premiership (18:35 local, 08:35 GMT, Sky Sports Action).
The Storm squandered a 14-point lead in their loss to the Broncos in Round 3, as they fell to an almost exact replica of their 2025 Grand Final heartache. Can they get back to winning ways? Read below as I go through my Cowboys vs Storm predictions, the latest match odds from Betfred and full team news.
Cowboys vs Storm Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publishing
Despite having home advantage, the Cowboys aren’t much fancied for the two points on Saturday. Betfred have them at 11/4 for the victory, with the Storm 2/7 to get back to winning ways.
You can back the 8-minute draw at 20/1, while the Storm give up 13.5 points on the standard two-way handicap. Melbourne are 5/6 to make light work of the difference, with Todd Payten’s side 10/11 to at least stay within 13.
Team News
Payten has Thomas Mikaele back in contention following the knee injury he sustained in the Round 1 loss to the Knights in Las Vegas. The former Warrington Wolves front-rower is among the six options available from the bench.
Zac Laybutt has been named in the outside backs, with Tom Chester sitting this one out through suspension.
The absence of Nick Meaney with a back injury has paved the way for Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown to start on the wing for Craig Bellamy’s visitors.
Trent Loiero comes in at loose forward having come off the bench against the Broncos, with Tui Kamikamica stepping down to interchange in the corresponding move.
Manaia Waitere is included on the six-man bench.
Handicap 3-way Alt 1: Storm -18 @ 7/5
When the Storm go, they can really go. Both of their victories so far this year have been sizeable (by 48 v Eels and 26 v Dragons).
And in 2025, seven of their 17 successes came by margins of 20 or more points, underlining their ability to really put games to bed when they have the chance.
They should get the opportunity to do exactly that on Saturday against a Cowboys side who saw off the winless Titans last week but must do a lot more to prove themselves as anything other than also-rans in 2026.
Payten began the season under pressure, and while he wasn’t the first coaching casualty of the term – Manly having sacked Anthony Seibold on Friday – few would back against him being the second.
A big loss to a fit and firing Storm would increase the spotlight on the Cowboys chief.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
First-Half Handicap: Storm -6.5 @ 21/20
Eighteen times in 2025 the Melbourne Storm carried a lead into the second half, and on 12 of those occasions they had at least a two-score edge.
That included a 14-point lead over the Cowboys in their eventual 38-14 win in June, and there were several examples of them having a three-try advantage.
I can’t see this one staying particularly close for too long either, with Bellamy known for sending his side out with a bit of purchase.
Even when going behind to the Eels on opening night they’d opened up an 18-4 lead at the break before running riot in the second stanza.
This ought to be another of those games, with the 21/20 price implying a 48.8% probability which underestimates the power of the storm.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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