Cowboys vs Panthers Prediction: Cleary’s return to spark a big win for the leaders

After suffering a shock first defeat in eight against the Titans last week, the Penrith Panthers travel to Townsville on Saturday to face a North Queensland Cowboys side whose NRL finals hopes have hit the rocks (5:30pm local, 8:30am BST, Watch NRL).
The Cowboys have lost three on the spin to fall out of the top eight, while Penrith are still four points clear at the top of the ladder. Here are my Cowboys vs Panthers predictions, Betfred’s match odds and full team news.
Cowboys vs Panthers Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publishing
It will come as a surprise to nobody that Penrith are huge favourites, with Betfred slating them at 1/4 for the win in 80 minutes at an implied 80% probability.
North Queensland are 16/5, while the draw is available at 18/1.
Team News
After a 38-20 loss to the Warriors, Cowboys boss Todd Payten makes a few changes. The main one comes on the bench as John Bateman makes way for Liam Sutton.
Elsewhere there are some alterations to the initial XIII, with Tom Mikaele and Jason Taumalolo taking the two starting prop positions. Griffin Neame and Coen Hess drop to the bench in corresponding moves.
For the Panthers, Brian To’o, Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo are back after not being rushed into post-Origin action against the Titans.
Paul Alamoti switches to centre and Linday Smith moves to the front row, with Luke Garner, Jack Cogger and Liam Henry dropping to the bench to make way for the returning representative trio.
Handicap 3-way: Panthers -14 @ 21/20
Even weakened by their absences last week, Penrith really shouldn’t have lost to the Titans. And I expect them to put things right at the Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
The Cowboys have been playing above themselves for much of the season, and their recent slippage feels like a regression to the mean.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have been sensational for much of 2026 and I just don’t see them going down in back-to-back matches.
This should showcase the 2021 to 2024 four-time Premiers back at their best. And with an odds-against price about a three-score win I can see punters making the most of them bouncing back.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Nathan Cleary Anytime Tryscorer @ 7/4
Cleary’s return is an obvious boost to the Panthers, and in 2026 he is trending towards his best try-scoring record since at least 2021.
The talismanic scrum-half has five in 12 this year, and I can see that run being boosted with another try in what should be a Penrith-dominated fixture.
The 7/4 odds imply a 36.4% shot, yet he’s averaging a 41.7% hit rate.
Odds correct at time of publishing.






















