Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction: Maguire’s men 5/2 to hold off plucky rivals

Regular-season games in the NRL Premiership don’t come much bigger than the one taking place at Suncorp Stadium on Friday (09:05 GMT, 19:05 local) when the Brisbane Broncos host the rival North Queensland Cowboys.

This clash always evokes memories of the epic golden-point finale in the 2015 Grand Final, and, while we’re a decade removed from Johnathan Thurston’s career-high moment the edge, remains the same between the two sets of fans. Here are my Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys predictions, together with the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys Odds

The Cowboys’ early-season struggles are reflected in the betting markets, with the visitors listed at a massive 5/1 for the straight 80-minute win with Betfred, implying a 16.7% hope of an away win.

On the flip side, the Broncos are a prohibitive 1/8, so it’s off to the handicap market for real value if you’re happy to assume that Michael Maguire’s side will win. The draw is available at 28/1, and with fair reason.

The standard two-way handicap is placed at 17.5 points in the favour of the Cowboys, and under those conditions the Broncos are 10/11 with the visitors 5/6.

And if you’re ready to go big on the Broncs, there’s the alternative three-way bracket which is set at a 28-point start, with the home favourites available at 13/5 to win at a five-score canter.

Team News

After defeat last time out to the Canberra Raiders, the Broncos’ first home game of the seson coincides with the return of big-time centre Kotoni Staggs after a quad injury.

That could see Gehamat Shibasaki make way, although Maguire has handed the same 17 shirts to the side beaten in the capital in round two. Staggs is initially listed as one of the reserves.

Rugby League Odds

Changes are afoot for the Cowboys as coach Todd Payten reacts to two hefty defeats to begin the campaign.

There’s a huge positive in the return of superstar middle Jason Taumalolo following a foot injury, while Jeremiah Nanai is also included as a substitute.

An alteration in the halves will see Jake Clifford step up after hernia surgery, with youngster Thomas Duffy moving down to the reserve list.

Robert Derby is back in the reckoning after 18 months in place of Braidon Burns on the wing after the latter suffered a hamstring injury.

Broncos by 1-12 points @ 5/2

If you go with the reasoning, then a Broncos side which hammered a Penrith Panthers-conquering Sydney Roosters in week one should obliterate the Cowboys after their two heavy season-opening losses.

But that doesn’t take into account a poor defeat to the Raiders in round two when the Broncos just couldn’t get going in either half until they were behind the eight-ball.

It also ignores the ‘derby’ factor, and with the Cowboys looking better stocked this week thanks to the returns of Taumalolo, Nanai and Clifford, I think this will be less one-sided than expected.

Nine of the Broncos’ last 13 home wins over their state rivals have come in under the 1-12-point bracket. And I think this one might be another of those in which the Broncs have more than enough for the victory but the Cowboys will at least keep it respectable.

Under 50.5 total points @ 5/6

Both of these sides have been involved in some high-scoring encounters so far, and there’s been a bit of a league trend towards attack-heavy scoreboards.

But these derby fixtures can be cagier affairs at times, and I can see the points tendency levelling out sooner rather than later as coaches look for tighter defensive displays from their sides in order to stay in games longer.

To that end, I’m siding just on the under in the total points bracket, with only five of 23 clashes between these two since that epic 2015 Finals run having breached the 50.5-point barrier.

That makes the 54.5% implied probability of the 5/6 odds look a little light.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.