Next Prime Minister Odds: Polanski more fancied than Badenoch but Rayner favourite

Following the Green Party victory in the Gordon & Denton by-election last month, interest in the party has surged and they’ve even been second in recent national polls. 

This has led to movement in the Next Prime Minister Betting Market and we are now in a quite staggering position where the leader of the Greens is a shorter price to be the next person walking into 10 Downing Street than the leader of the Conservatives. Neil Monnery looks at the market and how we got here…

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It is less than a decade ago that Boris Johnson won a December General Election and cemented his spot as Prime Minister. It also showed that the country had drifted considerably to the right and that the Conservatives were the natural party of power in the United Kingdom.

Now we are at the stage where they could feasibly be the fifth or sixth party when the country next goes to the polls.

That seems inconceivable but is actually very feasible as the rapid rise of Reform UK has attracted a lot of the natural Conservative vote on the right and the more liberal wing of the party drifted to the Liberal Democrats in pockets throughout the south in the 2024 General Election. Being squeezed hard on the right and to a significant degree from the left has seen the party reeling. They have only cleared the 20% mark in national polling once since the by-election. Whereas the Greens have done so on two occasions.

The collapse of the Conservative support isn’t the only noteworthy part of recent political shifts though.

Seeing the Green Party becoming a genuine force is something most didn’t see coming after the last General Election, getting 6.4% of the vote and returning four MPs to the Green Benches was a solid performance but the rise can be attributed in large part to the support of the Labour Party dissipating. Sir Keir Starmer is pretty unpopular and a lot of those who voted for him last time around have been galvanised by the more genuine left-wing policies that Zack Polanski is offering. 

Beating Labour in a by-election for a seat they previously held was a landmark moment in UK politics. Labour did shoot themselves in the foot by blocking the popular Andy Burnham from standing and that would certainly have assisted in their win but that notwithstanding, it shows that they can take on their natural opponent and beat them head on.

All this being said, Polanski is now just 16/1 to be the next Prime Minister, which is staggering. Kemi Badenoch is trading at 25/1. I’m not sure anyone ever thought we’d reach a situation where the leader of the Greens was a shorter price to walk into the biggest job in the country than the leader of the Tories but politics is changing.

The top of the market is still dominated by Labour MPs as the likelihood of Starmer staying in power throughout this parliament seems to be ever decreasing. Angela Rayner’s rapid rise to the favourite in this market has shown a remarkable bounce-back following her resignation as Deputy Leader of the party just six months ago. At just 7/2 and substantially shorter than the 8/1 price available for Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband, it does seem as though she is in pole position to assume leadership should the current PM lose a leadership challenge.

Nigel Farage is trading at 10/1 but is highly unlikely to assume power until after a General Election, so backing him would necessitate Starmer’s survival until the country goes to the polls again, whenever that may be. Sadiq Khan is next in the market at 12/1 but as he’s not a current MP - similar to Andy Burnham - he wouldn’t be eligible until he returns to the Green Benches.

Personally I think the likelihood of either Polanski or Badenoch being the next PM are between extremely slim and none. For me there are three runners, Rayner should Starmer leave before the next General Election. Then we have Farage and Burnham, with the latter on the proviso he does get a by-election win at some point in this parliament or wins a seat next time out and Labour don’t get an outright win, ensuring a coalition with the current PM moving aside.

Politics though is very fluid at the moment. This could all change in the weeks and months to come.

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