Makerfield By-Election Odds: Labour open as Favourites to hold seat over Reform UK

Ever since Labour’s shocking performance at the 2026 local elections, everyone has been waiting to see if Andy Burnham could find a route back to parliament. This evening that path opened up with the shock resignation of Makerfield MP Josh Simons.

Can the Mayor of Greater Manchester win the nomination and then win the by-election? Let’s look at the opening odds here at Betfred…

You can bet on and check out the latest Makerfield By-Election Odds over on betfred.com

So I’m downstairs with one of the cats on my lap, watching YouTube and not doing much. I open up by phone, scroll through social media, see the news and simply say two words, ‘Game on’.

I don’t live in the Makerfield constituency but I do reside literally in the neighbouring seat. Like plenty around here, I woke up last Friday to news that Reform UK had stormed to victory in my council ward as Nigel Farage’s party continued their swashbuckling rise to the forefront of British politics.

In the office just yesterday we were discussing how few safe Labour seats were left and that parachuting Burnham in would be a challenge wherever he found the opportunity.

With the strong surge of the Green Party to the left of Labour and the aforementioned Reform UK to the right, the Red Rose felt the pinch and anywhere would have been problematic. Still, there is hope for the 56-year-old and his supporters, he can win and we have him as the betting favourite as the market opened.

This all comes with the caveat that Burnham has to win the nomination. I don’t think that’ll be an issue this time around. There is little chance Sir Keir Starmer has the political capital within his own party to block him and you can be assured that the local party were sounded out about how they would react. It should also be noted that in his previous stint on the Green Benches, the expected candidate did represent a neighbouring constituency.

I suspect all things being even, this would not have been his first choice but we have to remember, just two years ago Burnham comfortably won another term and he did so with 66.1% of the vote in the Wigan Council area, of which the Makerfield constituency sits. Two years is a long time in politics but finding a seat in Greater Manchester is a massive net positive as he holds genuine support from the majority of people within the region.

Personally, I feel that Reform UK have a ceiling of around 35-40% of the vote share, which obviously leaves some wriggle room for Labour to keep the seat, return Burnham to Westminster, presumably then to essentially trigger a leadership election in an attempt to become Prime Minister.

I can’t think of a time anything like this has happened before, when a by-election is essentially a referendum by one constituency on whether one man should become the next PM. A victory for the incumbent Mayor of Greater Manchester would surely send the country down that path.

Whether it is right or wrong is another debate entirely but that is the way our political system is currently set up. We vote for individual MPs and not for a Prime Minister. For one by-election only though, we are basically doing this by proxy.

Reform UK are going to be the primary opposition, which the early odds unsurprisingly confirm. Betfred are 4/6 for the Labour hold with Farage’s party 6/5. These early prices feel about right.

If we convert these odds into implied percentages, the Betfred traders believe Labour have a 60% chance of winning with Reform UK at 46%.

Labour won back in the 2024 General Election by 5,399 votes, which is a comfortable enough win but Reform UK are far more of a problem for the party now and Starmer's leadership has seen his party drop-off in opinion polls. Back in that previous election, many were just voting to get rid of the Conservative Party, this time some will be protest voting against the Red Rose. Burnham though is a strong candidate who does mitigate this sub-section to some degree but it is going to be a right battle.

The Green Party are the wildcard and just how many votes can they syphon from Labour? If they take more than 10% of the total vote share, that could be catastrophic for Burnham and his chances. I’m not expecting either the Lib Dems or the Conservative Party to keep their deposits.

This is a two-horse race for the actual victory and I do like Burnham’s chances. I don’t think it’ll be easy and Labour will have to throw everything at it but the future of the Red Rose is at stake. He is the one candidate that can unify the disparate party and if he fails, then any hope they have of somehow forming the next government will surely ebb away.

It is going to be fascinating and you can never write off Farage. He is arguably the politician of his era and despite losing oh so many times, he’s kept coming back and found ways to reinvent himself. He’ll know that keeping Burnham out of Westminster is the best way to keep Labour down, so he’ll throw the kitchen sink at it.

This isn’t an ordinary by-election that’ll make ripples, whoever wins and whoever loses, they’ll be a giant stone dropped in the lake and the after effects will be felt all round.

Mayerfield By-Election Prediction

My initial prediction is that if Andy Burnham does get the green light to stand, he gets the job done and wins the Makerfield by-election but it is going to be a battle right up until Polling Day.