Makerfield By-Election Odds: Labour a 86% chance to win

The constituency of Makerfield goes to the polls this Thursday with the Labour Party heavily fancied to hold the seat despite all polling suggesting they are not the most popular with the electorate.

This is the Andy Burnham effect in full-force but will the Mayor of Greater Manchester get over the line or will Reform UK or Restore Britain have a sting in the tale? Let’s check out the latest Makerfield by-election Odds here on Betfred…

You can bet on and check out the latest Makerfield By-Election Odds over on betfred.com

When Josh Simons announced that he was stepping down as Makerfield MP to give Burnham a route back into parliament, many were skeptical that Labour could indeed hold the seat. The party were coming off the back of very poor local election results (not least in this exact constituency) but were also deeply unpopular at a national level. 

The party of the Red Rose only had one hope and that was an extremely popular candidate to gloss over the bruised Labour brand. This time the hierarchy didn’t stand in Burnham’s way (which they did in Gorton & Denton) and the former Health Secretary got the green light.

Our opening prices saw this as an extremely tight Labour/Reform UK tussle but after the first constituency polls came out, the market started to drift away from Nigel Farage’s latest political vehicle. 

When Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain came in heavy and decided to give right-wing voters a choice, it gave Labour a bit more breathing space. They’ve cleared 5% in all six polls that have come out and have averaged 8%. If they get to that mark when the actual votes are counted, the path for Reform UK to win is extremely narrow.

This has been reflected in the odds and the fluctuations throughout the campaign. Reform UK were nip and tuck with Labour when the market opened but as of Wednesday morning, they are 5/1 and have been moving out steadily for a couple of weeks. 

We took a flurry of bets for Restore Britain when they made their announcement and they got as short as 4/1 at one point. Quickly it became clear that they were playing a spoiler role and were running a solid third. You can back them today at 20/1.

That leaves Labour having been odds-on ever since Burnham’s candidacy was confirmed. They are now 1/6, which equates to a 86% chance when we turn that price into implied odds. 

The odds seem to indicate this is a done deal but in the past decade or so, political markets have sent us for a spin. Hillary Clinton was around 1/10 just after polls closed in Florida back in 2016, only to lose. Donald Trump was around 1/6 deep on election night in 2020 only for Joe Biden to get over the line as mail-in ballots started to get counted. Kamala Harris was also favourite briefly in the final hours before polls closed in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

In the UK, Theresa May was 1/100 at one point to hold a majority after her snap-election in 2017 but Jeremy Corbyn performed well on the trail and she most certainly did not. The PM fell short of that much needed majority and that pretty much torpedoed her leadership.

Having said all that, I continue to think Labour get over the line. They’ve led every single constituency poll where he’s been named as the candidate and bar the first one, he’d led outside of the margin of error. I like them to get around 45%, Reform UK 40% with Restore Britain around 10%, leaving the other parties and independents to sweep up the rest of the vote. 

I expect a hefty turnout with plenty of the electorate motivated to cast their ballots but when push comes to shove, people do vote for the party first and foremost but the performances of the two main candidates (Burnham and Robert Kenyon of Reform UK) has been chalk and cheese. 

The former has shown himself to be a shrewd politician who jumped into potentially shark-infested waters but has swam whilst the latter has struggled when the lights have shone brightly on him. His performance on Question Time showed that he’s not ready to be an MP but he would’ve beaten any other candidate despite that. 

Once the result is announced, all eyes will be on Burnham to see what his next step is but once he’s sworn back in as an MP (should he win of course), surely it is only a matter of time until he challenges - and wins - the Labour Leadership and becomes Prime Minister.