Greens General Election Odds: Zack Polanski’s party now third favourite

We have woken up to a seismic result in south-east Manchester overnight, with Hannah Spencer comfortably winning the Gorton & Denton by-election and giving the Green Party their fifth MP and first in the north of England. So, what next for Zack Polanski's surging party? Was this merely a flash in the plan or something on a wider scale?

Here at Betfred Insights, we take a look at the latest political landscape - in particular the Greens General Election Odds...

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*You can bet on and check out the latest live Next General Election Odds over on betfred.com

Reform UK @ 7/4

It was a torrid night for Reform, who opened as favourites in this by-election race and looked a sure thing when announcing right-wing political commentator Matt Goodwin as their candidate. Nigel Farage's party were riding high in the national polls and confident of winning another brick in what they hoped would be a northern turquoise wall.

However, after a devastating defeat with their candidate not quite living up to his name, Reform have been quick to blame 'Sectarian voting', with reports of family collusion at the polls.

This won't be the end of the debate I feel, and the situation may be used to further stoke the fires of division in the upcoming months, as Reform aren't going anywhere anytime soon. They're still our clear favourites to win the next General Election as it stands.

Labour @ 9/4

Well... what next for Sir Keir Starmer?

Labour came into the G&D by-election with a huge 50% share of the vote and a 13,000+ majority under the previous incumbent Andrew Gwynne. To see their vote shredded as it was and to only come in third place with a 25% share will be devastating to both their candidate Angeliki Stogia and party leader Starmer.

To be fair to Stogia, she ran a good campaign but was always going to be a sacrificial lamb after the blocking of uber-popular 'King of the North' and Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from running by the party's NEC.

You get the feeling this would have been a very different result had Burnham been allowed to stand, and there will be more questions to answer from an increasingly-fractured Labour Party over the next few months.

Green Party @ 4/1

What a night it was for Spencer, Polanski and the Green Party as a whole. This was their 127th in the list of constituencies to target and the first by-election where they received more than 10% of the vote. For Spencer to pick up almost 41% of the vote was frankly staggering and far higher than any of the polls in election week had suggested.

Again, was this merely a protest vote at Labour's handling of the Burnham situation or symptomatic of a wider wish for change at a national level? One thing is for sure, the Green Party now appear to be a legitimate threat to Labour and look to have pushed the left-leaning Liberal Democrats way down the pecking order.

Polanski is hugely-popular among young voters but is seen as a divisive, dangerous figure from the centre-right, with controversial policies such as the decriminalisation of all drugs used as a stick to beat the Greens with in the election campaign. It's safe to say that clearly wasn't a issue for the voting public of Gorton & Denton.

The Greens have seen their odds slashed from an initial high of 400/1 last year to 8/1 overnight - and halved again to 4/1 this morning!

Conservatives @ 13/2

This by-election was never a target for Kemi Badenoch's party and she will have been unsurprised to see them pick up just 2% of the voting share.

Just how much of the Tory party's vote has gone to Reform nationally remains to be seen, but it's absurd to see them at 13/2 to win the next GE after 14 years of rule recently.

It's hard to see a stop in the defection of ministers from Tory to Reform, nor a way the true blues can turn this around in the next few years.

Restore Britain @ 14/1

One big danger to Reform could be the split they recently had with Rupert Lowe, a former MP, who had a huge public bust up with Farage which led to the forming of Restore Britain as political party.

It remains to be seen how many of Reform's voters will side with Lowe and the new party, but the 14/1 odds show they could be a legitimate threat and split the right-wing vote further.

Liberal Democrats @ 25/1

The Liberal Democrats under Ed Davey look to be struggling badly as the Greens surge, but they do hold 72 seats in Parliament and will surely still be a huge factor in left-leaning areas.

It will be interesting to see if they can hang onto those seats or if Polanski's continuing populism will see them begin take the Lib Dem's share...

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