Gorton & Denton By-Election Odds: Reform UK & Greens on the attack

| Monday 26th January 2026, 16:27pm

Monday 26th January 2026, 16:27pm

Andrew Gwynne has stepped down as the Member of Parliament for the Gorton & Denton constituency due to ill health, meaning that a by-election writ has been moved and a new MP will be elected towards the end of February.

Despite wanting it, Andy Burnham has been blocked and this has opened the door to two parties to potentially take the seat from Labour. Will the voters lean right or left as they look to get away from the unpopular party of power? We have a look at the early prices in the Betfred betting market...

Gorton & Denton By-Election Odds

Reform UK @ 11/8
Green Party @ 13/8
Labour @ 11/4
Workers Party of Great Britain @ 25/1
Conservatives @ 100/1
Liberal Democrats @ 100/1

*Odds correct as of 16:00, 26/01/26

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The Gordon & Denton by-election had all the makings of being incredibly significant for the future of the government. Andy Burnham had announced that he intended to run and his return to the Green Benches would have put him in position to challenge current Labour Leader and Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer.

Instead though, the Labour National Executive Committee - chaired by Starmer loyalists and including the PM himself - blocked the extremely popular politician from running. The official line is because it would set about a costly Mayor of Greater Manchester election but no-one seriously believes that. This was all about self-preservation and staying in the top job.

You could easily make the case that the Prime Minister is running scared of seeing Burnham back in Westminster. All the evidence supports it and even though it may keep him in the top job for a few more months, the writing is now on the wall for the former Director of Public Prosecutions as his premiership is barely hanging by a thread.

Gordon & Denton was not a must-win, it was more of a 'would like to win' but now he’s blocked his leadership rival, that has all changed. Defeat in the Greater Manchester suburb to either Reform UK or the Greens would be a political disaster.

Personally, I’ve always thought that mid-term by-election are ripe for protest votes and aren’t necessarily an indicator of what is to come. This one though feels like the biggest in an awfully long time, as Labour themselves have decided to make it far harder than it should’ve been. Had Burnham been allowed to run and subsequently won the nomination, his popularity would have surely been enough to avert a potentially embarrassing defeat. Now with local anger swelling, the door is wide open not only for Reform UK but also the Green Party to pull off an electoral upset.

The writ has been moved quickly and polling day is set for Thursday, February 26, 2026. This means it will be a short campaign that is aimed to keep the other parties from gaining momentum. A rare strategic win by Labour there.

It is extremely early days and I’ll be watching the news and betting market movements closely but my early gut feel is this could be one for the Greens. Reform UK are the favourites but I’ve always felt as though their support is soft in by-elections. They were the short-priced favourites in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election last year but lost by more than 11% to Plaid Cymru. They were an even-shorter price in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election but squeaked home by just six votes. They are way too short.

This election may well come down to the George Galloway effect. Yes, he’s back and considering running and that could throw a cat among the pigeons as it were.

The Muslim Vote pressure group though have already endorsed the Green Party, which would be a blow to the charismatic politician, who has leaned on this section of the vote in his by-election triumphs.

So voters will go to the polls in a month and the PM will know that should Labour fail to retain the seat, all eyes will be on his decision to stop Burnham from being the candidate. Would he prefer to lose the seat and keep the Greater Manchester Mayor away from the House of Commons? That is only a question he can answer but from the outside looking in, that seems like it may well be the case.