Gorton & Denton By-Election Odds: Greens heavy favourites as we head to Polling Day

It has been less than a month since the writ was moved for the Gorton & Denton by-election but it seems like a lifetime ago. So much has happened since and none of it good for the Labour Party. They are set for an embarrassing defeat in the Greater Manchester seat but who will emerge victorious?

The betting suggests that it is between the Green Party and Reform UK but our political correspondent believes it won’t even be close. Let’s check out the latest Gorton & Denton by-election odds as we head into Polling Day...

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

*You can bet on and check out the latest live Gorton & Denton By-Election Odds over on betfred.com

When the seat was vacated, all signs pointed towards a triumphant return to the Green Benches for Andy Burnham. The current Mayor of Greater Manchester is an extremely popular politician - not only locally - but also across the country. It was an opportunity for a big and important win for the Labour Party but they decided a good result wasn’t their priority.

Winning the seat would not have been a fait accompli for the 56-year-old but it would’ve put the Labour Party in a tremendous position to hold off the attack on the right from Reform UK and the surging Green Party from the left. Rather than embrace the return of Burnham however, Sir Keir Starmer and those who oversee candidate selections for the party clearly decided that saving the PM’s bacon was more important than winning a silly little by-election.

The Red Rose had pretty much no chance of victory without Burnham on the ticket and throughout the campaign, all their odds have done is drift under the chosen candidate Angeliki Stogia. In the intervening weeks, the Prime Minister has faced questions over his leadership with his chosen Ambassador to the United States of America (Peter Mandelson), who was named repeatedly in the Epstein Files and this week, saw the latter subsequently arrested.

His Chief of Staff fell on his sword for advising Starmer to appoint him in the first place but the damage has already very much been done. A disappointing third-place finish is in reality, the best they can hope for and that will further put pressure on the PM as the vultures are circling.

Three paragraphs in and all I’ve written about is who won’t win, let’s take a look at the two genuine contenders. Reform UK opened as the betting favourites and it flip-flopped between them and the Green Party for the first few days but in the past couple of weeks, the momentum has been coming in from the left rather than the right.

Earlier in the week, the Manchester Evening News published an article which said Reform UK were two points ahead of the Green Party. That data came from Zack Polanski’s team and is one of the oldest tricks in the books. If you secretly think you are ahead but it is close, leak that you are just behind a few days before polling day to try and squeeze the support from supporters of other parties. This has long been a tactic the Lib Dems have undertaken and makes plenty of sense politically.

As for Reform UK, they started with a bang by announcing well-known right-wing activist Matt Goodwin as their candidate. Throughout the campaign, they have been able to bring in the likes of Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick, Andrew Rosindell and Danny Kruger. The first two are household names in politics and have been fixtures at the top of the Conservative Party in recent years.

To get them to defect gives legitimacy that they are now the home of Conservative values and could help long-term. Whether it will help on Thursday is another question altogether.

This is the proverbial two-horse-race and either the most right-wing or the most left-wing party will win. When I first wrote-up the market when it opened, I said I liked the Green Party to win and nothing that has happened has changed my mind. I fully expect the Labour vote to collapse and plenty of supporters of the Lib Dems will lend their vote to keep Reform UK out.

Betting markets have been overestimating the support of Nigel Farage’s party recent results have shown and they aren’t even the favourite here. A win for 34-year-old plumber Hannah Spencer would be a real sign that the Greens are now a significant political force.

Recent national polling has seen their support increase but a win over Labour and Reform UK would be quite the statement that where they to concentrate their efforts, they can win and start gaining real traction in the House of Commons.

As of the time of writing, the betting market suggests the Green Party have a 62% chance of winning at 8/13, with Reform UK a 29% shot with odds of 5/2. The 9/2 for Labour (18%) seems incredibly optimistic.

You can read all of our Politics Betting Tips on that dedicated section here on Betfred Insights...