Runcorn & Helsby By-Election Odds: Reform UK set to storm to victory

The first by-election of the parliament is just a week away and Sir Keir Starmer is looking at tasting defeat in his first test of his leadership at the ballot box.

It is Nigel Farage and Reform UK who look set to win next Thursday but could Labour hold off what would be a quite embarrassing loss? We check out the latest Runcorn & Helsby By-Election Odds here at Betfred…

An early-morning left-hook in Main Street, Frodsham was followed by several more and the political career of Mike Amesbury came crashing down. The Labour MP for Runcorn & Helsby had only just been elected for a third term with a near 15,000 majority but an argument with constituent Paul Fellows ended all that.

Amesbury would be found guilty of assault and given a ten-week stay in prison. The MP would appeal but that would only see the sentence suspended, meaning that a recall petition could take place. He chose not to await the result of that and announce his intention to resign, triggering this by-election where Labour are expected to lose.

National polling has a real tussle at the top. Reform UK might only have four MPs but they are extremely popular with a large segment of the public. They currently are in a three-way tie for the lead in most polls - if we include the margin of error - with the Tories and the Labour Party. This represents a significant swing of around 10% from Labour at the 2024 General Election, with all three sitting at around 25% of the vote.

This seems to suggest that by-elections in Labour seats outside metropolitan areas should be fertile ground for Farage and his party. Polling in the seat seems to indicate that is indeed the case in this scenario. Lord Ashcroft published his constituency polling four days after Amesbury announced his resignation, which had Reform UK sitting pretty on 42% with Labour at 33%.

It does feel as though this is the proverbial two-horse race. Most Conservative voters will lend their vote to Farage’s party. We’d also expect to see a fair few Lib Dems and Green supporters - who would in a situation like this often lend their vote to Labour - to not do so this time around. There is a sense of dissatisfaction about how Labour are doing in power and I’m not expecting the tactical vote to be anywhere near as strong as it often is in by-elections.

This leaves Sarah Pochin as the betting favourite, who with a win would become the first female MP for the fledging political party. She is a former Conservative councillor who stood for parliament with their rosette in the Bolton South East constituency under Theresa May’s leadership back in 2017.

She was expelled from the party is 2020 and was then subsequently kicked out of the Independent Group on the council as well before finding a new home with Reform UK. It would be fair to say the betting favourite for this by-election has moved around a bit politically but her current home is likely to reap the rewards of a place on the Green Benches.

If Pochin is to be defeated, then it’ll be at the hands of Labour candidate Karen Shore. She is a current councillor on Chester West & Chester Council who is struggling to strike the right tone with her potential constituents. Campaigning on closing a local hostel that is housing asylum seekers feels straight out of the Reform UK handbook but no, this is what Labour are proposing and they wonder why they can’t attract the tactical voter.

The Conservative Party found out at the 2024 General Election that alienating one-wing of their reach to appease the other didn’t go well. Labour are seemingly about to find that out as well. You can’t out right-wing the right-wing party, so why bother?

If you want to vote for policies of that side of the political spectrum, then you are going to vote for Reform UK. Labour need to remember that and what I suspect will go down here next Thursday should be a warning across the bow for the Prime Minister.

Reform UK are 1/3 to win the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, which equates to a 75% chance when we calculate the implied odds. I think they are undervalued in the market despite the short-price. Labour are priced-up at 5/2 (a 28% chance) with all the other candidates being a waste of money.

There is considerable anger about the government essentially being ‘Tory-lite’ and not bringing in much change at all. That has alienated a section of the electorate and with people clamouring for change, the new kids on the block (led by a well-known old kid on the block) are where the voters will flock.

I like Reform UK to comfortably overturn the 14,696 majority and win. This victory may well continue to fuel the fire that Nigel Farage may well be our next PM…

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