Next US President Odds: Donald Trump favourite to win 2024 US election

The day has finally arrived. Millions of Americans all across the country will head to the polls to determine who will become the 47th president of the United States of America. It pits Republican candidate Donald Trump up against the Democrats nominee Kamala Harris, as she attempts to become the first female president in the country’s history. 

But how are the odds looking as the public decides? We’ve taken a look at the Next US President Odds with Betfred which you can find below.

How it works: The American voting system sees both candidates attempt to win states, which account for a certain number of electoral votes based on population. California is worth 54, Texas 40 and so on all the way down to Maine which is worth three. 270 is the magic number that will mean a candidate has won more than half of the 538 electoral votes available, and therefore the presidency. 

As we can see from the odds this morning, Donald Trump is the odds-on favourite to return to the White House and defeat a female Democrat, just as he did in 2016 when he got the better of Hilary Clinton. If he does manage it, he will become only the second person in history to win back the presidency, following in the footsteps of Grover Cleveland back in 1893. 

Next US President Odds

It won’t have the same shock factor as it did eight years ago but it will still be a seismic statement of where the USA is right now politically. However, all the polls point to the fact that this election is going to be incredibly close. It could even be the closest US election we have ever seen, bringing back memories of that razor-thin contest between Al Gore and George Bush at the beginning of the millennium. 

Harris is certainly not out of the running, and an awful lot will depend on those seven key swing states. They are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Harris marginally leading the polling in the Rust Belt and Trump edging it in the Sun Belt. 

Joe Biden won six out of seven in 2020, taking Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to put himself in the White House with a total of 306 electoral college votes. It seems unlikely that Harris will experience a similar level of dominance over these seven states, but she can afford to lose a couple and still edge it. In fact, Harris only needs to hold the upper mid-west of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to reach that magical 270 but the polls in the latter two states are showing a tie right now. That’s how close it is going to be this year. We can also see from the odds to win the popular vote (that’s simply the total number of votes across the entire country), that Harris is likely to be the more popular choice for American voters. 

If we are looking at value right now, we have to go with Harris, but that is just because I feel the odds between these two should be equal right now. She is likely to win the popular vote, but translating that into the electoral college win is going to be a close-run thing. She’s currently polling ahead in Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina, which is intriguing as Trump won North Carolina last time out. Where he has lost ground there he could have made up some numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which both look to be up for grabs having turned blue in 2020. 

Betfred also has a few price boosts to offer for election day. The two I’ve picked out are Trump to win 30 states or more at 7/4 and Harris to win 300 or more electoral college votes at 7/2, which depending on your view of this race could offer some good value as millions of people cast their votes. Ultimately, it is too close to call right now so perhaps there is value in looking at both candidates to win 269 electoral votes, now boosted to 16/1. 

We will know more as the polls close later on, but for now, Trump remains in pole position according to the odds. 

Find more Politics Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights