Next Tory Leader Odds: James Cleverly becomes new Betting Favourite

The race to replace Rishi Sunak as the leader of the Conservative Party saw a dramatic twist today as the two candidates who had previously led the balloting among their MPs saw themselves overtaken, as James Cleverly soared up from 21 votes to 39. That leaves previous favourites Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch seemingly fighting to make it to the next stage, where the membership will decide.

We take a look at this evolving market where the Next Tory Leader Odds have shifted dramatically but may well still open the door for some betting value…

*You can follow the link here to check out the live betting prices on Betfred and our Next Tory Leader Odds market...

The last time I did an update on this market a month ago, James Cleverly was sitting at 4/1 and looking like he would be the last person voted out of the running.

A strong performance at the Conservative Party Conference however has changed his fortunes and now he looks odds-on to make it to the final round of voting with the members. He’s 10/11 to win outright but I wouldn’t be quick to part with my money by backing him.

When you consider that the former Foreign Secretary and current MP for Braintree is considered the Centrist candidate, you can already start to see the problem that he faces when it comes to attracting the votes of the rank and file.

With Reform UK out there sticking out like a sore thumb as the voice of the right, many want the Conservative Party to go with them and fight for that ideological ground on the extremes of the political spectrum.

Both Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch are appealing to those members and vying to be seen as the best candidate that the right can put up. There was only one vote between them in today’s round of voting, with the former losing two and the latter gaining the same amount, it looks oh so close between them as they look to scrape into that final round of voting.

Tom Tugendhat was the candidate eliminated on Tuesday, with 21 MP’s backing the member for Tonbridge. His supporters are expected to flow in the main to James Cleverly, all but ensuring his position in the final two. This leaves the two more right-wing candidates to tussle over who gets to go to the members. It could come down to one or two MP’s changing their minds or a bit of tactical voting.

Betting wise though, the smart play is to back Badenoch. She is undoubtedly the more popular of the two with the members and internal polling by the Conservative Home website seems to suggest that she’s in a position to defeat Cleverly whilst Jenrick would struggle. If the right are to coalesce around one candidate, then the member for North West Essex would be smart choice.

MP’s will vote again on Wednesday and expect plenty of back door talks and negotiations to take place to see who will remain in the race to take on what must be one of the toughest jobs in politics at the moment, fending off Reform UK on the right and attracting moderates in the Centre.

You can bet on your chosen candidate by clicking on their respective banner and 'Add to Betslip' below.