Maidenhead Odds: Can the Tories lose Theresa May’s seat?

It is back to the commuter belt for our second constituency look of the day as we delve into the likelihood that the Tories could lose Maidenhead to the Lib Dems. The betting market indicates that the seat is very much in-play but how realistic is the prospect of overturning a majority of 18,846?

Let’s take a look at the latest Maidenhead Odds heading into the 2024 General Election…

We’ll start with the elephant in the room. If former Prime Minister Theresa May was on the ballot, then this would surely be a Conservative hold. Whatever people outside of her constituency thought of her and the time she spent in Number 10 Downing Street, we saw that the personal vote was very strong and that alone would surely be enough to get the Tories over the line.

The problem they have is the incumbent is stepping down and ending her 27-year career in the House of Commons. In her place will be another familiar name as former MP for Twickenham, Dr Tania Mathias, will be wearing the blue rosette. The doctor spent two years representing that constituency before losing her seat in the snap General Election, ironically called by Theresa May, in 2017.

Vince Cable returned to parliament with a five-figure majority but seemingly, the chance to return to the corridors of power were too much to ignore and she’ll try again in a contest where history indicates the Tories are rightly considered the favourites.

The betting market currently sees the Tories at 4/11 (73% chance of winning) and given the history of this seat, that should come as no surprise. Even in the 1997 bloodbath, Theresa May would take this seat with a majority of 11,981. We saw the Lib Dems inch closer in 2001 and 2005 but you would never say it was a genuinely close contest.

So why now is this worth looking at closely? The Lib Dems are 5/2 (29% chance) to win the seat and the reason there is optimism for Sir Ed Davey’s party is that they took control of the council in 2023 with a very strong 45% of the vote, despite not fielding a full slate of candidates.

The Tories got 29% and all across the borough, wild swings were seen as the Lib Dems not only won control of the council, they ran up the score in most of the wards they took from the Conservatives.

This is undoubtedly a worry for the local Tories as it showed that without the Theresa May name on the ballot, they are susceptible but they have an awful lot of history in this seat and defeat here would be monumental.

Like many other seats in the commuter belt and across the south, this one boils down to that anti-Tory coalition and whether they can rally around one candidate.

Labour at 8/1 (11% chance) are a hard pass as despite finishing second in 2017 and strong national poll numbers, their lack of strength at council level will hurt them in this campaign as the Lib Dem squeeze will be strong.

With the current polling numbers coupled with Theresa May’s personal vote not being available, the Conservatives are highly unlikely to clear the 50% mark in the constituency, which they have been able to in every election since 2001.

Recent council elections together with the Lib Dems jump into second place in 2019 makes it pretty clear who is best placed to take down the Tories but I think this one may be a touch too far for the challengers and the Conservatives hold on.

I do however think this is closer than the odds suggest and unless the Tories see a significant upward movement in national polling, this one will still be in the balance late in the campaign.

We’ll cover this ongoing story from now through to General Election day itself from our team here at Betfred Insights. Keep checking out our coverage from the Next Prime Minister markets through to key individual constituencies over the coming weeks as we follow the twists and turns from a betting perspective for the 2024 General Election in our Politics Betting Tips section.