US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s three best bets from Sunday’s action

Paul Quigley, our Stateside expert, rounds off the week with three selections from the race meetings across the pond on Sunday. We head to three different tracks for each of his picks, and they are: Gulfstream Park, Ellis Park and Colonial Downs.

Read on for his latest US Horse Racing Tips.

Horse Racing Odds

17:20 Gulfstream Park (Race 1) – Tybee Echo (2) @ SP

The market is likely to gravitate to only three runners. One of them is Tybee Echo (2). He looked dustbin class until he ran first time for trainer Saffie Joseph. The three year old wired a field of maiden claimers by three lengths.

The cut back to five furlongs is unlikely to be an issue. He does try Tapeta for the first time. Maybe there is another step forward in him second time back after a lay off. If there is, he may be able to beat winners at first time of asking.

Tybee Echo (2) made all on an easy lead last time. To double up, he will likely have to stalk the pace as Noahs Pride (5) looks quicker early on. He was involved in speed duels in his last two starts.

The likely race flow favours him here with on paper limited competition for the lead. He finished a neck behind Lodato (1) two starts back. The stalker/closer looks a big player here. The worry with him is he may not get a good set up. If the pace horses falter, he is the runner most likely to take advantage.    

17:50 Ellis Park (Race 1) – Culprit (6) @ SP

Two of the more fancied runners have doubts about them. Cant Stop Munnings (7) and Culprit (6) finished third and fourth at this claiming level at Churchill over a mile at the end of May. That looked a deep race on the clock and judging on the first two home.

Cant Stop Munnings (7) ran the better. A negative trainer change and the cut back in distance are worries with him. The fact that Wes Ward ran Culprit (6) for sale on his comeback may be a tell he’s not capable of his old form.

He  may be worth chancing second time back. His new trainer David Jacobson has a good record with first time acquisitions. As he has some speed, he may be able to run his race shortening up to six and a half furlongs. He should get a nice trip outside the speedy Impavido (5).      

White Whale (3) plunges in class for his return. He can win this if he repeats his third at Keeneland in April. Big Tech (4) gets class relief but not as much. He has been gelded since his last start which may see him rebound.

Dispersion (2) and Good Mojo (1) filled the places in a cheaper claimer at Churchill last month. The pair need to improve to get more than minor awards. Another Monarch (8) has slightly better form. He did finish behind Cant Stop Munnings (7) and Culprit (6) in May. 

17:59 Colonial Downs (Race 2) – Mila Candy (7) @ SP

Trainer Jamie Ness wins at a high strike rate almost everywhere. He is having a super Colonial Downs meet. If both his horses run here, he’ll be odds on to win this allowance conditions event.

At first glance Sunflower State (8) looks the safer option. She has been placed in her last two starts on dirt. This race may be slightly easier than those two. She is a stalker/closer who should get a nice trip with all the speed in here.

That said, if Ness runs them both, his Mila Candy (7) is taken to come back to life. Her recent form looks poor but she has been trying to run early with much better fields in New York. The early fractions and the competition here should be more to her liking.    

Most of the rest of these are last time out maiden winners. Turkish Breeze (1) and Will Believe (6) graduated locally. The rail drawn runner will find it much harder to make all against winners.

Will Believe (6) has speed but did stalk the pace and run well in a maiden at Churchill in May. Cross of Valor (4) took 15 goes and the step up to a mile to break her maiden. 

Velocity Girl (5) broke her maiden by a space at Laurel in January. She has been freshened up after two runs when in deep in stakes events.