US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s best bets for Wednesday’s Stateside action

Paul Quigley, our US horse racing expert, has another three Stateside selections on Wednesday evening - from Gulfstream, Turf Paradise and Tampa Bay Downs.

21:02 Gulfstream (Race 7) - Peggysue I Love U @ SP

The contenders come of out two races at this level on 10th and 31st January. Down In The Bayou (5) fared best of the trio who ran in the latter event. She was a staying-on second, a neck in front of Vanishing Wish (2) with Taking It All (1) a fading sixth.

Down in the Bayou did look a hard ride, having to be scrubbed along in the middle part of the pace. She now gets the services of Irad Ortiz. If she can stay in striking distance, she could out-finish this group.

I Love Venezuela (6) and a below-par PEGGYSUE I LOVE U (7) were remote second and third at this level, but over five a half furlongs in the 10 January race. The form as it stands seems inferior to the other race. That said, I Love Venezuela has worked well since and Peggysue I Love U may be capable of better. She duelled on the front end and bumped with another speedster approaching the turn.

That filly came back to beat Down in the Bayou and Vanishing Wish next time. Now, Peggysue I Love U gets off the rail and cuts back to five furlongs. She goes from one capable trainer to another via a claim. Almost seven weeks freshening up and a kinder race flow for a speed runner like her make her a rebound candidate.

One Smokin' Rita (9) was well beaten in the race I Love Venezuela and Peggysue I Love U were placed in. She had been away 11 months so may have been ring rusty. She may come to life second time back.

21:23 Turf Paradise (Race 6) - Shaun's Jazz @ SP

The standard-setter here is Mongolian Spring (5). He has run well in both his turf starts since switching surfaces. In the latest, he ran second to a well-meant class -dropper in Luka Grazie (7), who had and Mongolian Frost (4) behind him. In what doesn’t look a deep race for the level, he should go well.

There are a trio in here dropping sharply in class who could come to life. Well Imagine That (1) and Buy the Rumor (3) faced tough tasks last time. The first-named gets back on the surface he broke his maiden on. Flying Blind (8) was pitched in higher priced claimers since he graduated in December. His trainer has a fine record when he runs a horse on the turf for the first time.

SHAUN'S JAZZ (2) is hardly bombproof but is a risk/rewards kind of play. He was well beaten on his return recently. That was sprinting on the dirt at Santa Anita. His best form in California is over a mile. He has ran well in the turf in the past. The five-year-old catches a field with limited early speed on his local debut. If he’s ridden aggressively early on, he could get very brave on the front end.

21:45 Tampa Bay Downs (Race 9) - Axcel @ SP

This scheduled turf race is going to be switched to the dirt. With that in mind, there could be plenty of non-runners. Maybe horses like the class-plunging Caroom (9) will take his chance. He is turf bred top and bottom. If capable trainer Larry Rivelli lets him take his chance, he has to be feared.

He would make the market for a runner like AXCEL (3). He’s run well in his last two starts on the grass but did break his maiden and ran well against winners on dirt. He won’t be anywhere near his 15/1 morning line, especially if there are key scratches. Hopefully he will still be a backable price.

Point Liam (6) and Coaches Meeting (7) are more exposed than the selection. Both have form on dirt in the past that put them on the shortlist. Not Thistimerandy (11) and Bounteous (12) have performed well more recently on today’s surface. Bounteous (12) who goes for the more successful trainer is probably the more dangerous of the pair.

These off-the-turf races can cut up badly with a runner able to get clear early. Escape Key (4) and Mongolian Apple (5) both have speed and are worth considering on that basis.

Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...