A scratch, a loss but also a very sweet 14/1 place for us on Tuesday here on the US Extra Place Race column means that it was a profitable piece 24 hours ago. Plenty of Extra Place Races Stateside this evening and we’ll make four selections and as always, every pick we make is from outside the top three according to the Morning Line odds as we search for value in the market…
Our first pick of the column actually comes from the first of the Extra Place Race slate for the day, the 17:50 at Thistledown, where I’m taking the eight-year-old Galileo’s Affair, who is expected to go off as the fifth choice. She has been very consistent so far in her 2023 campaign having hit the board six times out of nine runs and has a career record of top three finishes of just over 50%. Not showing any real sign of slowing down and this isn’t a great field.
Over to Delaware Park we go now for the 18:00 where the rank outsider according to the Morning Line odds isn’t exactly a chump. Edward Madden has two wins on the year and broke his Maiden last year right on this very track. Three career wins from nine starts and priced up as the longshot of seven in a $14,000 Purse race feels wrong. I do get that his two most recent runs have been poor but that is often where we can find the value, backing a decent horse off the back of a bad run or two.
We have the second of our two tips from Thistledown as the fourth race on the card (19:20) has an interesting four-year-old filly in it whose poor run last time out seems to have really seen her expected odds drift. Sicilian Style Two did not perform well earlier this month but that performance came on the back of a win and a place with more than half-decent speed figures. Happy to grant a horse a mulligan and if she performs as well as her previous two runs before that, should really find herself at the pointy end of the race. Priced up as the fifth choice of seven on the Morning Line.
Into the wee small hours we go with our final selection of the night as we take fourth shot on the M/L Julie’s Ferrari to outrun his expectations in the 02:05 at Mountaineer Park. This five-year-old has hit the board in all but two of his starts on dirt in 2023 and has won two of his previous three, both of the wins coming at six furlongs, which is the distance he’ll be asked to travel tonight. Odie is a short-priced favourite and any horse beating him would likely win but our pick may well be the second best in the race, so if we can get him as the fourth choice in the market, we’ll take it.