Strange day yesterday as only one of our selections ran following a couple of scratches. The lonely pick who did run however did not place, so we have put up back-to-back non-profitable days for the first time in a fortnight. We go again and as always, all of our selections come from Betfred’s Extra Place Races and are horses outside the top three according to the Morning Line Odds as we try to find value in the market…
We get our four Thursday picks underway with a selection from a State Bred sprint race at Thistledown where the fifth-choice according to the M/L is Oxbow’s Ride and he gets the nod from us. The four-year-old has a pretty average record having only won once and placed three times so far in his 13 race career but they have all come in his previous seven runs. In addition, the only two times he’s raced at the five-and-a-half furlong distance, we’ve seen good outcomes with a win and a third place. The three-year-old Lunchatthelizard is the fastest horse in the race and will be tough to beat but looking for a place at what should be a big price.
One race from the Spa for us today and that is the 18:44 where I’m taking the unraced Teresa to place from her current position of joint-fifth favourite. This three-year-old filly has looked impressive up at Belmont in her breezes so far although her work at Saratoga has been a tick slower. The field doesn’t look to be rife with quality although the work of Knockzcatoffzfence does indicate that she is the rightful favourite. A place though for our choice would not surprise.
My top selection for the day comes from Race 4 (19:00) at Delaware Park where the joint-fifth horse according to the Morning Line No Salt, I think not only has a real shot to place but could even win this race. This six-year-old has won races at Aqueduct, Belmont, Monmouth, Parx, Saratoga and Turfway Park. The only track where he’s raced but hasn’t won is Delaware Park. That one outing came last year on a muddy track. With three wins in his past six and five wins in his past ten, don’t sleep on this Michael Miceli’s trained horse to be challenging down the stretch.
An hour later we are back at Delaware Park for the 20:00 where three-time winner Grand Arrow is the fourth choice according to the Morning Line. Not only has this three-year-old filly won three times, they are all from her previous three outings, two of them right here at this track. Her last two runs have also been by far her best in terms of speed figures. Clearly this is a track that suits her as her only breeze here back in June was very fast also. I like this selection only just less than I do the 19:00.