US Horse Racing Tips: Paul Quigley’s trio for Sunday Stateside

Our US horse racing expert Paul Quigley was in (**review of yesterday's tips**). He's back with a bumper offering of three horses running at Sam Houston, Oaklawn Park and Santa Anita. Read on for his US Horse Racing Tips for Sunday, March 2.

Today's US Racing Odds

19:30 Sam Houston - Bali Girlee each-way @ SP

Quinquela is likely to be all the rage on the big class drop. She broke her maiden second time out at Lone Star last June. She’s only had two starts since either side of a long lay off. Both were in stakes events. She ran well in the first and was off slowly when well beaten in the latest on her comeback. Now she runs in a claimer for the first time. And a modest one to boot.

That and possible second time back improvement are reasons why she may have too much for her rivals. Her trainer Steve Asmussen’s horses are often well bet or even overbet in his home state of Texas. He is winning at a good percentage at this meet.

Tequila Kiss makes the same big class drop as Quinquela. Like her, she is a three year old taking on her elders for the first time. She has not been disgraced in a pair of stakes events since she returned in January. Her credentials look as good as the favourite but she may be a lot bigger price.

The class droppers may dominate this race but maybe Bali Girlee is the play at the likely odds. She is far more exposed than the lightly raced three year olds but has a solid recent piece of form in the book.

Earlier this month, she ran second in a similar race to this one. The third came back to win next time. She’d been away since October so may improve for that run. She does lose her rider to Quinquela but that is more about jockey Stewart Elliott’s relationship with Steve Asmussen. Her trainer Mindy Willis is having a fine meet and David Cabrera is hardly a poor rider replacement.

A few of these finished behind the selection last time. Of them, Give Em Hail Gayle will be suited by the cut back to five furlongs. Tapitsgotapistol had a troubled trip. She is better judged on a second at this level in January.

Cheltenham Betting Odds

21:51 Oaklawn Park - Midnight Taxes @ SP

The Oaklawn feature is a stake for Arkansas breds run at six furlongs. Whatever way you look at it, Bohemian Bo is the runner to catch and beat. He won this race last year by a length and a half from Willow Creek Road with Lochmoor in third.

He’s looked just as good as ever this term with two fine efforts in open company. His record from a rail draw is two wins and a second from his last three starts. The icing in the cake is he is the dominant speed of this race.

That should mean Christian Torres can have him running within himself on the front end. His trainer is having a lean meet but he’s handled this horse really well throughout his career. He ticks all the boxes with the likely exception of his price.

There was an allowance race prep for this event run over course and distance on February 7. At the winning line, there was little to separate five of these. One Ten Stadium won by a head from Willow Creek Road with Navy Seal, Midnight Taxes and Lochmoor just behind.

The winner is a late runner who is in fine form. From that race, Midnight Taxes who had been away five months may be the one to take out of that race. Take out a run on the turf and he has a very progressive profile. He may be able to sit second and get first run on the closers. Presuming Bohemian Bo is a very short, he may be the best alternatives at the prices.

King Peanut is a possible upsetter. He finished well behind One Ten Stadium in January but had been away since last spring.

22:30 Santa Anita - Howin @ SP

The feature race Stateside on Sunday is for three-year-old fillies. On what they have shown so far, none of these will be going to The Kentucky Oaks. There is a chance at least one of them may improve though.

Bob Baffert has three of the six runners entered. His Maysam needs to rebound. She looked a real prospect when breaking her maiden on debut. On the back of that, she was backed as if defeat was out of the question in The Sunland Park Oaks. It wasn’t as she ran a shocker. She comes back only two weeks later and now races with blinkers off.

Cipriani and Just as Fancy were well beaten second and third behind a real prospect in a local Grade 3 last time. Cipriani did the better. There is nothing of the ilk of the winner in this race.

Some speed to chase down will suit her. In contrast, Just as Fancy could rebound if she can dictate a soft tempo. She ran well below her maiden winning form last time. The pair have to be considered in a race where all of these could win.

In terms of ability, Supa Speed has shown as much as anything in this line up. She won nicely on the turf in late January. All her races have come on grass. Her dam was a turf horse but she has worked well on the dirt.

Maybe Howin is a safer play. She broke her maiden well on debut over a mile. The cut back to seven furlongs didn’t bring out the best of her in a deep Grade 2 next time. Now stepped up in distance, she should be able to improve. She should get a nice trip just off the speed.

The only stakes winner in this line-up is Hey Jessie. She beat fellow California breds by two lengths at Los Alamitos in December. That was her only start on dirt. She may lack the perceived class of some of her rivals but a repeat of that form may see her go close.

Paul Quigley is a long-time US Racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...