US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s Saturday’s Stateside picks

Our US horse racing expert Paul Quigley is back with his thoughts on Saturday's action across the pond and has picked out three horses to consider backing this evening.

Read on for his US horse racing tips for tonight along with his reasoning for these selections...

Today's US Racing Odds

22:03 Tampa Bay Downs - Nitrogen @ SP

Unlike the race after The Tampa Bay Derby, this stake is scheduled for the turf. This year’s renewal has come up very deep. That said, Nitrogen (9) will be the clear and deserving favourite. As a twice raced maiden, she outrun her odds when third to the classy Lake Victoria in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She confirmed that run wasn’t a fluke when winning a stake at Gulfstream on her three-year-old debut. There is not a ton of speed in here so Jose Ortiz can’t have her too far back early on.

The likely second favourite is The Chad Brown trained Opulent Restraint (7). She won both her starts since her debut including a stake at Aqueduct in October. Like virtually all of these fillies in his line up, there may be better to come from her. In terms of class, The Godolphin owned Lush Lips (6) takes a bigger step up.

The former Donnacha O’Brien trained runner has won back to back starts Stateside. Her speed figures seems to leave her a little short of the required standard. Massively in her favour is the possibility of her being on or close to soft early fractions.

There are plenty in here at big prices well worth considering. Pretty Lavish (10) and Celtic Motif (11) are others who started their careers in Ireland. The Irad Ortiz ridden Pretty Lavish (10) maintained her unbeaten record in a conditions race here last month.

Frankie Dettori is booked to ride Celtic Motif (11). She missed by a neck in a maiden at Gulfstream last month. A neck behind her was Love You Anyway (5). She had a trip from hell in what was her career debut. The fact that her connections pitch her in so deep for her second start suggests she’s a quality filly in the making.

Smudge (8) and Brillante (2) have much more fancied stablemates. Both broke their maidens last time. Judging by the trouble she encountered, Smudge (8) is much better than a neck victory suggests. Brillante (2) graduated by four lengths locally after being slowly away. The pair could outrun their odds. Likewise Deloraine (3).

She was stakes places on dirt last month. Prior to that, she broke her maiden by a space on the turf.

22:23 Gulfstream - Spirit Wind @ SP

The streaking Nic's Style (1) is the gal to beat. She made it six wins from seven career starts when taking a stake at Tampa last month. Ruthless Rua (3) was two-and-a-half lengths back in third. Prior to that, she outfinished the speedy R Disaster (4) to winning a state bred event there. She is very effective at six and seven furlongs so this in between distance won’t be a problem. The five-year-old is two from two from the rail so her draw doesn’t seem to be an issue. She should get enough speed to chase down to suit her late kick.

Trainer Saffie Joseph is triple handed. Last time out maiden breaker Save Time (5) needs to improve significantly. His other two runners seem the best chances of turning over Nic's Style (1).

R Disaster (4) bettered her second to the rail drawn runner when winning a conditions race here in January. The third placed filly Done Enough (7) franked the form by winning her next start. There is a good chance she makes the lead on her own.

She’s dangerous under that scenario. Her stablemate Spirit Wind (6) has not raced since December. She is proven fresh and has been working really well. The six-year-old is a two-time graded stakes winner, one at Saratoga last summer. She may sit just behind R Disaster (4) and get first run on Nic's Style (1).

The comebacking Into Champagne (2) is The X Factor here. She’s not raced since fading in The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She is lightly raced and is two-for-two in sprints.

22:34 Tampa Bay Downs - Owen Almighty @ SP

This race sees the three-year-old debut of classy Chancer McPatrick (2).

Chad Brown’s colt won his first three career starts including Grade 1’s at Saratoga and Aqueduct. On the back of those, he was made second favourite for The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He lost his unbeaten record there but was by no means discredited. The pace up front didn’t suit the late runner.

His trainer has reported he’s had a couple of setbacks, hence his late start on The Triple Crown Trail. He also stated he may improve for the run. To be guaranteed enough qualifying points for The Kentucky Derby, he has to finish second at best here. If not, he will have to run in another qualifying race to run at Churchill Downs.

The former Irish trained Hill Road (3) has joined Chad Brown after a fine effort in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He finished third and was the only runner to make any ground from the rear. Like is much vaunted stablemate, he did win first time out as a two-year-old so is proven fresh. Off his run at Del Mar, he has ran faster than anything in this line up.

The Chad Brown pair may improve for the run. Even if they are ready, there is a chance Owen Almighty (1) can give them a race. He was narrowly beaten in a local stakes prep for this race. That race was dominated by the front end types so the run could flatter him. He is progressive and can stalk the if a runner like Brodeur (4) or Naughty Rascal (6) are gunned for the lead.

Brodeur (4) is on a hat-trick but faces much tougher rivals than he has been at Oaklawn. Patch Adams (7) also last raced in Arkansas. He had a troubled trip when odds on for a Grade 3 there on his comeback. Based on a 10-length maiden win at Churchill in November, he is very dangerous.

Filoso (5) wasn’t suited by the race flow in his last start as a juvenile at Churchill. His best effort came with pace to chase down.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...