US Horse Racing Tips: Back Sandman to dust off opposition on Saturday

It is a big night Stateside on Saturday. The best action comes from Gulfstream and Oaklawn. Both tracks have multiple stakes cards. The highlight at each are Grade 1’s for the three-year-olds. Both races are likely to have serious implications for the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. I have no serious knocks on Sovereignty (Florida Derby) and Cornucopian (Arkansas Derby). The pair are very likely to be short-priced favourites. In both races, I’ve tried to find an each-way alternative. Maybe the type to run second or third in forecasts and tricasts.

As far as The Kentucky Derby ante post market, both favourites are likely to shorten up if they win. Maybe more so Cornucopian who has a lot more to prove than Sovereignty. If the last named were to beaten by Disruptor, Madaket Road or Tappan Street, the winner may be a fraction of the big odds they are pre race. Read below for my US Horse Racing Tips for Saturday, March 29.

20:17 Oaklawn Park (Race 8) - Just Steel @ SP

I suppose the class-dropping Saudi Crown (8) is the one to beat. He looked like he’d be a player in the top dirt stakes in America after running too good to lose in The Group 1 Saudi Cup last year. He has won twice since but has failed badly in a trio of Grade 1’s. His last run at Gulfstream wasn’t that bad, and this is a far more winnable opportunity. It will be no surprise if he gets back to winning ways.

Trainer David Jacobson is double-handed. His Payne (7) is a veteran having an Indian Summer. He has rattled up a four-timer in claiming and starter company. All those races were over six furlongs, but he has plenty of back form over a mile. He does get a big class test. Not so stablemate Banishing (3). He came within a head of winning a Grade 3 when he stepped up from sprints here last month. The five-year-old is too sharp to ignore.

The lightly raced The Wine Steward (1) will take money here. The Grade 1 placed colt won a minor stake here in January. In doing so, he defied a long absence. He has worked well since. If all the speed horses take their chances, he may get a nice trip off the early fractions. His stablemate Emmanuel (6) has been racing on turf and, latterly, Tapeta. He had plenty of form on dirt earlier in his career.

Dimatic (5) has a stakes win and placings at the lesser tracks. He was a non-factor when behind Banishing (3) last time here. That race wasn’t run to suit on a speed-favouring track. Maybe if there is an upset, it will come from Just Steel (4). He was a promising three-year-old at this time in 2024. He’s had two starts back after a long lay-off. He shaped well in both. The third time back may see a peak effort from him.

22:42 Gulfstream Park (Race 14) - Cool Intentions e/w @ SP

Sovereignty (10) is currently the second favourite for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. The Godolphin-owned colt may go to the head of the market if he justifies favouritism here. He stamped himself as a top staying juvenile when a wide-margin winner of a Grade 3 at Churchill last November.

His trainer, Bill Mott, suggested he may be vulnerable on his three-year-old debut here a month ago. Not so, as he outfinished a promising runner with a big late move in a Grade 2. More ground here and a second time back are grounds for thinking he’ll improve again. He should get pace to chase down. His wide draw, which is a negative over nine furlongs here, may not be a problem. He is likely to be taken back and not hung wide.

Trainer Bob Baffert rarely comes this far east to run in these three-year-old stakes. He has shipped in Madaket Road (8). Although he reeled in late on when second in a Grade 2 at Oaklawn last month, he did run a fine race. His rider set super quick fractions. It will be interesting to see if the new jockey, Mike Smith, is as aggressive on him. He has to be reckoned with.

Along with Madaket Road (8), Disruptor (4) and Tappan Street (9) will take the most money against Sovereignty (10). Both have had two career starts. Disruptor (4) off his debut to thrash a field of maidens by open lengths here at the start of the month. He is likely to improve stepping up in distance. Tappan Street (9) seemed to catch a tartar last time when second in a Grade 3. The winner disappointed behind Sovereignty (10) next time but he has continued to work really well. He’s likely to take another step forward.

It could be double-figure odds bar a quartet of runners. Neoequos (1) had every chance when third to Sovereignty (10) last time. He draws the rail which can be a positive over this distance here. With the right sort of trip, he could make the podium. Jimmy's Dailys (6) and Cool Intentions (2) get big class tests. The first-named is improving and ran into a likely stakes runner last time. Cool Intentions (2) has been freshened up since a below par effort in a stake here in January. He looked promising prior to that. The runner he beat in December has won twice since. The Amo Racing owned colt may be a ‘vanity entry’ but could outrun his odds.

23:48 Oaklawn Park (Race 13) - Sandman @ SP

The winner of this very likely ran in one of two races here on February 23. It was the career debut of the much-vaunted Cornucopian (9). The $1.1m sales purchase was made odds on and ran to his billing.

He set a quick tempo and drew off by almost six lengths from a pair of well-touted maidens. Ideally, Bob Baffert may have found a softer spot for his second career start. The fact is he needs the qualifying points this race provides to get in the Kentucky Derby line-up. As well as three more furlongs to last, he faces some talented rivals.

Cornucopian (9) could be the real deal. He is likely to be odds on. Purely at the prices, it may be worth shopping in another direction. A couple of hours after Cornucopian (9) made his debut, they ran a Grade 2 prep for this race. It was won by Coal Battle (8), who was making it a stakes four-timer. He outfinished the lone leader, who set a quick tempo. Considering his sharp and progressive form, he always seems to go off a backable price. That is likely to be the same here as second or third favourite behind Cornucopian (9).

A few runners who finished behind Coal Battle (8) last time are worth considering. The late-running Sandman (6) had a wide trip and was beaten less than two lengths by him. His running style means he always needs some racing luck and/or speed to chase down. Bestfriend Rocket (4) and Speed King (5) may keep Cornucopian (9) honest up front. That scenario gives him a place chance at the very least.

Speed King (5) may be overlooked after being well beaten by Coal Battle (8) last time. He may be best at bossing things from the outset. That’s what he did in January when beating Sandman (6) in a Grade 3 here. The maiden Publisher (3) had a far-from-clean trip behind Coal Battle (8).

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...