US Horse Racing Tips: Three from the States for Saturday

Our US Racing expert, Paul Quigley, returns today with his Saturday Stateside selections.

Check out his US Racing Tips below, with two picks from Churchill Downs and a third from Belmont.

21:22 Churchill Downs (Race 8) - Tripolina (7) @ SP

This is a competitive and deep-looking affair. Gals like Sing a Little Song (2) and Punchy Girl (9), who come off fine efforts in decent company, are likely to be big prices. Two of the more talented runners haven’t raced since Ellis Park last summer. Both fillies have only had three career starts, so they may improve in their four-year-old season. Lotsandlotsofcandy (6) made it two wide margin victories in a row when scoring at the level below this one. Her trainer has a fine record with layoff types. She has been working well for her comeback. Fellow returnee Adogate (8) is likely to be a bigger price. She won her first two career starts before running third in a stake. She’s proven fresh.

Unless there are key scratches, a runner who can sit off likely strong early fractions may be the way to go. Marmalade Skye (3) was a wide-margin winner of a high-end claimer in fast time here last month. She has form at this level before, so the class rise may not stop her. Interestingly, that victory was the only one her apprentice rider had at this meet. Tripolina (7) will be coming from further back. She outran her odds when a closing second in a stake over course and distance last month. There are reasons not to side with her. She’s on a long losing run and may not get the very fast pace that suited her last time. She is still worth using within the forecast, at least with the likes of Lotsandlotsofcandy (6) and Marmalade Skye (3).

Ervadean (10) comes off two placed efforts in similar events to this one at The Fair Grounds. She has speed, but her rider may be able to work out a stalking trip from her wide draw. Twirl Around (4) can be ridden just off the speed. However, her two career victories, including a big effort last time, have come in wire-to-wire fashion.

Titled Lady (5) ran below her best in a stake at Oaklawn earlier this month. She was coming off a break, so she may have been a short horse. Based on two victories in Arkansas in the winter and one over course and distance last year, she’s not out of this. She may be one of the better chances of the higher-priced runners.

21:55 Churchill Downs (Race 9) - Sugaree (6) @ SP

Sugaree (6) and Tarneema (2) are no strangers to each other. They have met in their last two starts. In the first at Gulfstream, Tarneema (2) finished three-plus lengths ahead when they filled the places. On the back of that, she was made favourite to win an allowance event at Keeneland. She may have been successful, but for trouble in the straight. The rider of Sugaree (6) kept her in and then had no room as she dived to the rail in the closing stages. There is a good chance she reverses the form, especially if this becomes a test of which horse can quicken. The market is likely to reflect her lack of racing luck last time. If that is the case, the former Joseph O’Brien-trained Sugaree (6) may be the play. She is a grinder who did well to win against the race flow last time. A quicker run race may see her in a better light.

This is not a match race by any means. Boss Lady Bailey (7), Holy Foley (3) and Marksman Queen (5) finished first, third, and fourth, respectively, in an allowance event at Keeneland last month. The winner is a typical improver of her trainer - claimed and upped to long distances. She is a contender here. Frankie Dettori on Marksman Queen (5) did sit close to a strong pace for the trip. If he can ration her speed a little, she may go close.

Dreaming of Mo (1) and Strikingly Spun (4) are trying a mile and a half for the first time. Both have stakes form. The rail-drawn mare may add to the pace mix. Strikingly Spun (4) ran as if more ground would suit when a closing third in a stake at The Fair Grounds in March. It would be interesting to know if Jose Ortiz prefers to ride her or was jocked off Tarneema (2) after his ride last time.

Dazzlin' Dictator (8) folded after setting the pace in a Grade 3 over this distance at Keeneland. It may have been the yielding turf rather than the trip why she ran so poorly. She was a wide-margin winner over a mile and a quarter on Tapeta at Turfway in February. Maybe that is her surface.

22:45 Belmont (Race 10) - Super Swift (1) @ SP

The standard setter here is Clock Tower (5). He was a clear-cut winner of a Grade 3 at Del Mar in December. That was over a mile. So too were his fading efforts in a couple of graded stakes subsequently. He has not run in a sprint since his debut, but has plenty of natural speed. The chances are he rebounds, but he does have a good weight away over all his rivals.

Supersonic Blue (7) ships in from Southern California. He followed up a maiden win with an all-the-way stakes victory on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita. Looking at the early fractions he’s capable of running, he may be loose on the lead. He looks like a player with Flavien Prat taking the ride.

Trainer George Weaver is double-handed. His Insubordination (2) faded in a stake over a mile at Gulfstream earlier this month. The cutback in distance may suit. His stablemate Super Swift (1) will rightly take more money. His improving, beating a field of New York breds by almost four lengths in late March. That was on the dirt, but he ran second in a stake on his one start sprinting on the turf as a juvenile. He should give a good account of himself on either surface.

When the selection was runner-up in that stake at two, Warheart (8) was the four-length winner. He has had excuses for his two subsequent runs. There is a chance he goes off at a backable price here. Assertiveness (4) and Pivotal Moment (9) have less on their CVs but may be capable of improvement. The first named has not looked a strong stayer over a mile. Pivotal Moment (9) broke his maiden at second asking at Gulfstream. The way he drew off over five furlongs suggests he will run even better over today’s distance.

Jet Sweep Joe (6) was twice a stakes runner-up as a juvenile. He may be all the better for his comeback run at Churchill.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...