US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s four for Louisiana Derby day

Our US horse racing expert Paul Quigley is back with more Stateside action on Saturday and has picked out four horses to consider including three from Turf Paradise and one from Fair Grounds. 

Read on for his US horse racing tips for Saturday along with his reasoning for these selections...

20:57 Turf Paradise (Race 3) - Bluegrass Faith @ SP

There is a short run to the turn here. With that in mind, Memolotsamischief (2) has a good chance of wiring this group. He did so over five furlongs last month. The seven year old has plenty of form in this short distance. Annie's Boy (9) has more class than him but a potentially tough post. The former stakes runner ran well in a higher priced claimer last time out in January.

BLUEGRASS FAITH (4) ran an encouraging fourth on his return. That was a deep claimer run in a swift time. He’d been away for over four months so may be a bit sharper second time back. The cut back to four and a half furlongs is a slight issue. He has been able to sit handy over five furlongs in the past so should be able to be positioned within striking range. He gets the vote going for an in form trainer.

Jaime's Commitment (6) has plenty of form in abbreviated sprints and a fine record at Turf Paradise. He made a fine return in a deeper race last month. He’s one for the shortlist. Scopello (1) and Capital Expense (3) are worth considering on their draw alone. In contrast, Bodenheimer (8) may get hung wide from a wider gate.

Stormcatsong (5) is The X Factor here. He won twice in Wyoming before a speed and a fade job when in deep in a stakes event.

21:26 Turf Paradise (Race 4) - Lets Declare Peace @ SP

This is a stakes calibre and wide open allowance event for the track. Some of these mares have been excelling in stakes events recently. Go Go Sadie (6) beat Dads Estrella (1) in a restricted stake here last month. She is a player here. Her old rival Dads Estrella (1) had a far from clean trip. She has better form to her name.

There was a similar race to this one ran here on 20 February. The first four home reoppose. LETS DECLARE PEACE (9) outfinished Blessed Angel (5) and Asena (3) in a blanket finish with Never Sway (8) not far away in fourth. The winner caused a 12/1 upset but there was no fluke about it. She won in a very fast time and ran to the pick of her form at Remington and Oaklawn. The switch from the rail to the outside shouldn’t be an issue, bearing in mind her off the pace running style. The speedy Blessed Angel (5) may have the best chance of reversing the form on her third start after a long absence. She has speed but should be able to sit in striking distance just behind Pepper Mill (4).

Never Sway (8) is holding her form well but her narrow loss last time followed a neck defeat by Pepper Mill (4) in January. The mare that beat her followed that up with a nose defeat in a stake over seven and a half furlongs on turf. She’s too sharp not to consider. The worry with her is having to be gunned with the pacey Blessed Angel (5) drawn to her outside.

Miss Union (2) has ran second twice since winning a stake on her local return. In one of those races, she finished ahead of Asena (3). Like all of these gals, if things break her way she can win this.

21:59 Turf Paradise (Cotton Fitzsimmons Stakes) - Fearless Soldier @ SP

There is a nice mixture of locals with fine form and talented shippers from California. In the former category are Saline River (7) and Kennebec (5). The pair ran one-two in a stake over seven and a furlongs here last month with a trio of these behind him. Saline River (7) had a nice trip, saving ground sat off fast early fractions. He is just as effective over a mile. The late running Kennebec (5) got plenty of pace to chase down. With an extra half a furlong, he could reverse the half a length he was beaten.

The home team could have their hands full as the pair of invaders from Southern California have plenty of ability. Both of their trainers have had winners with the select few runners they’ve had at this meet. Sarwar (2) had Irish Prophet (6) behind him when he ran second in an allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita last month. The last named has subsequently performed better. Those races are at least as good as the stakes at Turf Paradise. The pair can win this.

Of the trio that finished behind Saline River (7) and Kennebec (5) in stake, a couple of them may be able to run better. What a Dude (1) stalked the pace while wide. FEARLESS SOLDIER (4) travelled like the best horse in the race for much of the journey, sat behind the pacesetter. He dropped away suddenly if something was amiss. He’s obviously better than that. The fact that his capable trainer runs him back in a stakes suggests he could rebound. He is a price chance. So too is Arma d'Oro (8). He now runs for a more successful trainer since going off form. The seven year old’s best chance may come if this stake is switched to the dirt. The one time class act is a possible upsetter.

22:42 Fair Grounds (Louisiana Derby) - Caldera @ SP

This is a wide open renewal, at least on paper. The unbeaten John Hancock (1) may go off as the favourite. He was game in victory when taking a stake at Tampa last month. The runner up franked the form when a clear cut winner on The Grade 2 Tampa Derby next time. The rail has been good at The Fair Grounds this meet. He may have company on the front end by fellow speed type Furio (8).

A trio of these ran in a Grade 2 prep for this race on 15 February. The winner freaked in a fast time. Chunk of Gold (2) and Built (6) filled the places at a safe distance behind him. The extra distance of this race will suit Chunk of Gold (2). Both he and Built (6) had far from clean trips. The pair are worth considering along with the fourth Vassimo (7). He lost his unbeaten record in that race but seemed to run in snatches. Now racing in blinkers for the first time, he may race more professionally.

As well as John Hancock (1) in here, Brad Cox has also entered Instant Replay (9). He’s an improving three year old who slammed Furio (8) in a minor event here last month. He is not out of this but the improving CALDERA (5) who gets a tepid vote. He followed up a clear cut maiden win with a very tight loss in a stake at Sunland Park. The winner did disappoint last Saturday but had fine back form in California. This is his toughest task to date but may be up to it at a decent price.

Tiztastic (3) and Hypnus (10) had far from clear journeys in a Grade 2 at Oaklawn last month. The first named may be plateauing in terms of form. Hypnus (10) has only had two career starts. He was making a nice move when short of room around the final turn.

Click the link for the latest Horse Racing Odds

Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...