US Horse Racing Tips: A Saturday hat-trick?

It’s the second leg of The Triple Crown, The Preakness Stakes on Saturday. Unfortunately, Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty is missing the race in order to be kept fresh for The Belmont Stakes. The runner-up from Churchill Downs Journalism does take his chance.

He is without question the horse to beat, but has to hold his form coming back on two weeks' rest. As well as proving he is a top-notch, his run in The Kentucky Derby proved he can handle an off track. That may be relevant if the rain this week continues into Saturday. Read on for my US racing tips for Saturday, May 17.

19:48 Pimlico (Race 8) - Keep It Easy (6) @ SP

This is a very competitive renewal. It will be interesting to see how much money last time maiden winner One Nine Hundred (8) takes. He ran into two highly promising types in his first two starts. In his maiden win,’ he did what it said on the tin’, wiring a field by seven lengths. He has run faster than any of his rivals. The pace dynamic may be different here, but he looks like a big player under Flavien Prat. Ancient World (3) will be a bigger price. He made it two from two lifetime when winning an allowance event at Keeneland last month. Like quite a few in here, there may be better to come from him.

Keep It Easy (6) rounded out his two-year-old season by winning a stake at Churchill by open lengths. He stepped up a distance in keeping with his pedigree on his three-year-old debut. The field was red hot, including subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty. That said, he never ran a step. He’s been freshened up and returns in a sprint. He is chancy but may be a decent price off his last run.

The Maryland-based trainers have chances in here. The best of them seems to be Faster Gator (7). He beat Slam Notion (1) on career start number two at Laurel in March. Almost six weeks later, he bettered that with a narrow loss in a stake at Aqueduct. He has tactical speed, so he should be able to run his race no matter what the pace scenario. Old rival Slam Notion (1) is speedy. He lost narrowly to Chipotle (2) before a dominant victory in lesser company at Laurel in late March.

Touchy (10) now races in blinkers after running third in a stake at Keeneland last month. Normandy Coast (4) sluiced through the slop to win a stake taken off the turf at Keeneland. That pair has chances in a wide-open race. Perfect Force (9) and Retribution (11) may have more price appeal. The first named gets class relief and cuts back to his best distance of six furlongs. Retribution (11) met a deep field on career start number two. His trainer doesn’t call her geese, swans. The fact that he is in a stake is a hint of a lot better to come.

21:11 Pimlico (Race 10) - Just A Fair Shake (9) @ SP

The two last time out maiden winners in here go for top trainers. The pair may have plenty of improvement to come and are likely to head the market. Both fluffed their lines on debut but looked likely stakes winners second time of asking. Crudo (1) wired a field at Keeneland by seven widening lengths. That was over seven furlongs, but he is bred to handle today’s distance. That is also the case with Invictus (6). He wasn’t as impressive as the rail-drawn runner but beat a better field and ran a bigger speed figure. His dam won The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, so stepping up to an extended mile should suit.

If the lightly raced pair of Crudo (1) and Invictus (6) progress, they may dominate the finish. That said, backing a runner either each way or win with saver forecasts may be the right way to go. The runner that appeals most is Just a Fair Shake (9). He has run well in all four career starts. In the latest, he ran second in a stake at Laurel after having a wide trip. The winner is a top-class Maryland-bred who is taking his chances in The Grade 1 Preakness later on the card.

Hymn (4) won over six furlongs on debut and has had mixed results in two starts over a mile subsequently. In the first, he ran second to a promising colt at Oaklawn. Back there in a stake a month later, he was a disappointing fourth after setting a soft pace. He has worked well since, so maybe his last was not his true running. He’s another whose best races may be in front of him.

Bear Claw Necklace (3) didn’t run to his maiden form second time out at Gulfstream. He has been freshened up and is in good hands. Bestfriend Rocket (2) is a little more exposed. He has a place chance off a victory in minor company at Oaklawn in March. It is easy to forgive his last run as the pace and the competition was too much in in The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

00:01 Pimlico (Race 13) - Journalism (2) @ SP

Journalism (2) won four straight starts since his debut, including The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. On the back of that, he was made the clear favourite for The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. He came up just short there, outfinished by Sovereignty. That run and his form in California makes him clearly the horse to beat. He has tactical speed, so he can sit handier if the early fractions are less frenetic than at Churchill Downs. A wet track shouldn’t be a problem, judging by his last run. The only worry with him is coming back only two weeks after that big effort. Kentucky Derby runner-ups have a pretty poor recent record coming on short rest for The Preakness.

Sandman (7) and American Promise (3) finished well behind Journalism (2) at Churchill Downs. Both encountered trouble. Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman (7) is seen to best effect chasing down a breakneck pace. That may happen if American Promise (3) adds to the speed mix. That colt has a chance off his wide margin Virginia Derby victory. His trainer is no stranger to posting upsets, including in this race last year.

If Journalism (2) is not quite at his best, his biggest dangers may come from new rivals Goal Oriented (1) and River Thames (6). The rail-drawn runner made it two from two lifetime when taking an allowance optional claimer on The Kentucky Derby undercard. There may be better to come from him. There is a chance he makes the lead on his own. At this stage of their careers, River Thames (6) has better form. He ran subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty to a neck in a Grade 2 at Gulfstream. Last month, he was narrowly beaten in a Grade 1 at Keeneland. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, bypassed The Kentucky Derby to target this race.

Clever Again (8) has a fine turf pedigree, but he’s only raced on dirt so far in his career. He made it two wins from three career starts when winning a stake at Oaklawn in late March. He did it well by four lengths. He’s pacey. It will be interesting to see if Jose Ortiz guns him for the lead or rides him handy, close to the inside drawn pair. Being so lightly raced, there may be better to come from him. That is also the case with Gosger (9). He followed up a maiden win by scoring in a Grade 3 at Keeneland.

Pay Billy (5) is the local Maryland champion. He was only a nose away from being on a six-timer here. This is a deeper race than those stakes at Laurel he’s been winning. He is a place chance. So too is Team Osbourne’s Heart of Honor (4). He had a fine spell in Dubai culminating in a nose defeat in The Grade 2 UAE Derby.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...