US Horse Racing Tips: Our man Stateside is at Turf Paradise

Our US Racing correspondent casts his expert eye over the Turf Paradise card on Saturday, and has three selections for us. 

Here's the lowdown;

Today's US Racing Odds

Horse Racing Odds

Turf Paradise Race 3 (21:24) – Bluegrass Faith (4) @ SP

There is a short run to the turn here. With that in mind, Memolotsamischief (2) has a good chance of wiring this group. He did so over five furlongs last month. The seven-year-old has plenty of form at this short distance.

Annie's Boy (9) has more class than him but a potentially tough post. The former stakes runner ran well in a higher-priced claimer last time out in January.

Bluegrass Faith (4) ran an encouraging fourth on his return. That was a deep claimer run in a swift time. He’d been away for over four months so may be a bit sharper second time back. The cut back to four and a half furlongs is a slight issue. He has been able to sit handy over five furlongs in the past so should be able to be positioned within striking range. He gets the vote going for an in-form trainer.

Jaime's Commitment (6) has plenty of form in abbreviated sprints and a fine record at Turf Paradise. He made a commendable return in a deeper race last month, and he’s one for the shortlist. Scopello (1) and Capital Expense (3) are worth considering on their draw alone, but in contrast, Bodenheimer (8) may get hung wide from a wider gate.

Stormcatsong (5) is The X Factor here. He won twice in Wyoming before a speed and a fade job when in deep in a stakes event.

Turf Paradise Race 4 (21:52) – Lets Declare Peace (9) @ SP

This is a stakes calibre allowance event for the track. Some of these mares have been excelling in stakes events recently. Go Go Sadie (6) beat Dads Estrella (1) in a restricted stake here last month. She is a player. Her old rival Dads Estrella (1) had a far from clean trip. She has better form to her name.

There was a similar race to this one ran here on 20 February. The first four home reoppose. Lets Declare Peace (9) out-finished Blessed Angel (5) and Asena (3) in a blanket finish with Never Sway (8) not far away in fourth.

The winner caused a 12/1 upset but there was no fluke about it. She won in a very fast time and ran to the pick of her form at Remington and Oaklawn. The switch from the rail to the outside shouldn’t be an issue, bearing in mind her off the pace running style.

The speedy Blessed Angel (5) may have the best chance of reversing the form on her third start after a long absence.

Never Sway (8) is holding her form well but her narrow loss last time followed a neck defeat by Pepper Mill (4) in January. The mare that beat her followed that up with a nose defeat in a stake over seven and a half furlongs on turf.

She’s too sharp not to consider. The worry with her is having to be gunned with the pacey Blessed Angel (5) drawn to her outside.

Miss Union (2) has ran second twice since winning a stake on her local return. In one of those races, she finished ahead of Asena (3). Like all of these gals, if things break her way she can win this.

Turf Paradise Race 5 (22:20) – Kennebec (5) @ SP

There is a nice mixture of locals with fine form and talented shippers from California. In the former category are Saline River (7) and Kennebec (5). The pair ran one-two in a stake over seven and a furlongs here last month with a trio of these behind him.

Saline River (7) had a nice trip, saving ground sat off fast early fractions. He is just as effective over a mile. The late running Kennebec (5) got plenty of pace to chase down. With an extra half a furlong, he could reverse the half a length he was beaten. In a race of many chances, he gets a tepid vote.

The home team could have their hands full as the pair of invaders from Southern California have plenty of ability. Both of their trainers have had winners with the select few runners they’ve had at this meet. Sarwar (2) had Irish Prophet (6) behind him when he ran second in an allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita last month. The last named has subsequently ran a better race. Those races are at least as good as the stakes at Turf Paradise. The pair can win this.

Of the trio that finished behind Saline River (7) and Kennebec (5) in stake, a couple of them may be able to run better. What a Dude (1) stalked the pace while wide. Fearless Soldier (4) travelled like the best horse in the race for much of the journey, sat behind the pacesetter. He dropped away suddenly if something was amiss.

He’s better than that and is a price chance. So too is Arma d'Oro (8). He now runs for a more successful trainer since going off form. The seven year old’s best chance may come if this stake is switched to the dirt. The one time class act is a possible upsetter if this race stays on the turf.

Horse Racing Tips from Betfred Insights.