US Horse Racing Tips: Four to start the weekend Stateside

Our US horse racing tipster Paul Quigley is back with four more for Saturday evening's action, from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita...

The best of the action Stateside on Saturday comes from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. The South Florida venue hosts no less than seven stakes events. The most interesting is The Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes (20:44). There are quintet of three year olds entered who could be players in The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

The Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes is not the only race that could have a bearing on The Kentucky Derby. Ante post joint favourite Barnes puts his credentials on the line in The Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita (23:43). Bob Baffert’s unbeaten colt was impressive in a graded stake in January over seven furlongs. Now he takes on two quality rivals whilst being stepped up to an extended mile. His trainer has a chance in The Grade 1 feature there, The Santa Anita Handicap (00:47). Locked will be the favourite. His trainer Todd Pletcher resisted the temptation to go for the money in Saudi last Saturday to run here instead.

21:37 Gulfstream Park (Race 11) - Steal Sunshine @ 7/2

The best horse running on Stateside on Saturday may not be in The Kentucky Derby preps or The Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. It could be Mindframe (1) who makes his four year old debut here. He ran into Dornoch In The Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and Haskell last summer. He’s not raced since July but is proven fresh and has been working really well. He may be hard to beat at a short price. Hopefully at least eight runners go to post as Steal Sunshine (7) looks an interesting place chance. He’s best closing over one mile at Gulfstream. Either back him each way or win with a saver forecast Mindframe (1) to beat him.

22:07 Gulfstream Park (Race 12) - Tax Implications @ 4/1

This is a wide open renewal. In Our Time (8) and Pounce (9) will take money on the class drop. The pair ran third and fourth in The Grade 1 Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf last time. In Our Time (8) may make the lead on her own. She is very dangerous under that scenario. See You Around (2) beat her here in December. She ran well in a Grade 3 at Tampa subsequently.

Frankie Dettori has a live shot with Poolside With Slim (4). She won a Grade 2 at Keeneland in October and is closely matched with Pounce (9) from a Grade 2 at Churchill in November.

Tax Implications (1) can often get well behind and find trouble when making a late move. That’s one of the reasons she has a lot more places than wins to her name. She did run with credit when in a Grade 1 at Del Mar in December. If you back her, it may be white knuckle viewing in the straight. She may be worth small each way support.

20:44 Gulfstream Park (Race 13) - Burnham Square @ 5/2

Trainer Todd Pletcher is double handed. River Thames (6) is unbeaten and has been impressive in victory both times he’s raced. He faces a different task here in terms of distance, track configuration and quality of rival. There is other speed in here but John Velazquez is likely to get the jump on his rivals early on. He is the runner to fear if you go in another direction. His stablemate Gate to Wire (1) shouldn’t be underestimated. He looked much improved trying the dirt for the first time. The rail drawn runner won a stake over seven furlongs in a fast time. If he can run the same race over today’s distance, he can win this.

Unlike The Pletcher trained pair, Sovereignty (2) and Burnham Square (3) are proven in route races. Sovereignty (2) was impressive when outfinishing a Grade 3 field at Churchill as a Juvenile. He won by five lengths despite having no speed to chase down. He’s been away since that victory in October. He’s a stayer who may be seen to better effect down the line when given a true test of stamina. Burnham Square (3) is progressing with racing. He won The Grade 3 Holy Bull last month. That race was ran on the same day as Gate to Wire (1) and River Thames (6). Looking at the early fractions and the final times, it can be argued The Pletcher pair ran faster. He just may be the now horse getting the right flow.

It will be interesting to see how behind in the market Keep It Easy (8) is compared to the other contenders. In his last start at two, he won stake at Churchill by open lengths in a super quick time. That was over six and a half furlongs. Looking at his pedigree, he could improve for the step up in distance.

23:43 Santa Anita (Race 8) - Journalism @ 7/2

Bob Baffert has a trio of runners entered. The maiden Mellencamp (1) ‘ran into one’ last time but is his clear third string. The presence of his stablemate mate Rodriguez (4) and Journalism (2) should ensure Barnes (3) is not too short a long odds on favourite. He was all the rage on debut at Churchill in November. Although he only won by a head, the runner up has turned into stakes calibre runner and the pair were ten lengths clear of the third. He improved markedly off that run, winning a local Grade 3 by five plus lengths. There is no reason he shouldn’t be effective over today’s distance. The bigger question is riding tactics. His main pace rivals are both trained by Baffert. It seems inconceivable the trainer’s instructions are for one of his runners to take him on early. If he is afforded a soft lead, he’ll be tough to reel in.

Rodriguez (4) has run faster than anything in this line up. That was wiring maidens second time out by open lengths. The tactics were changed when he faced Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull in a Grade 3 next time. He ran well but was never going to catch that runner once he was able to set an even tempo. It will be interesting if his new jockey Flavien Prat lets him roll from the outset or sits on the shoulder of Barnes (3). Either way, he should provide a good test of the credentials of the favourite.

The best chance not trained by Bob Baffert is Journalism (2). He is much improved since running third to Smooth Cruisein (5) and Mellencamp (1) sprinting on debut. A maiden win at Del Mar was followed by a convincing victory in a Grade 2 at Los Alamitos in December. The form at the time looked shaky at the time with the odds on favourite finishing third. Since then, the runner up ran well when winning The Grade 3 Sunland Derby. He has been working well for his three year old debut. There are definite scenarios when he finishes third in this race. If things break his way and he improves again, he could win. At something like 5/1, he may be worth a small interest.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...