US Horse Racing Tips: Navy Rules returns after 11 month lay-off

Last week was more miss than hit for us on the US Horse Racing Tips desk here at Betfred Insights but we go again, looking for a bit of better luck this time around.

We've picked out our Nap of the Day plus two each-way plays we think are value from the races across the pond later today and overnight...

*Races will be priced-up by the traders at betfred.com closer to Post Time.

17:50 Thistledown:

We open our look at Monday’s action across the pond with an Extra Place Race, where Betfred are paying out three places rather than two if the full seven runners go.

These are the races where I look for a bit of value deeper in the field and we have a horse entered who has hit the board in six of his past seven starts, including having won three times, who has been priced-up as the joint-fifth favourite according to the US Pool odds. That horse is Hpnotiq Rhythm.

This six-year-old has been cross-entered here and in a race at Belterra Park on Wednesday, so we’ll only find out later today if he’s to be scratched and will race there instead. If he goes however, plenty of scope for him to finish in the payout positions.

His Equibase Speed Figures are on average a step behind the favourites but in a win at Belterra Park last month, he put up an 80, which would be fast enough to certainly trouble the favourites. There is a bit of value here for an each-way play and we are expecting odds of around 6 or 7/1 once the market is priced-up.

*You can bet on all of Today's Horse Races over at betfred.com

18:34 Philadelphia:

Our Nap of the Day comes from the third race on the card at Parx (named Philadelphia on betfred.com) where the lightly-raced Navy Rules returns to the track for the first time since August last year with expectations that he’s going to have a productive meet.

This four-year-old has been seen four times on the track and has shown a bit of a split personality. He broke his Maiden on debut with a strong win but proceeded to follow that up with two extremely disappointing runs that didn’t add up at all to what we’d seen in the first race.

He would end his three-year-old season though with a flat out domination of the field to put up an Equibase Speed Figure of 88, which is by far the highest in the field on Monday night. So anything near his best and we should see a solid win at around Even-money.

Bluey is the second-favourite in the US Pools and he was beaten into second-place by Navy Rules in that race back in August and had an ESF 20 points below the victor. That says plenty.

02:30 Mountaineer:

Anytime you see a veteran horse put up back-to-back career-high Equibase Speed Figures, you have to at least sit up and take notice. That is exactly what we have in the seventh race on the card at Mountaineer in the early hours, where Magna Ruler deserves an each-way play.

We’ve seen this six-year-old have a solid if unspectacular resume but he’s more than doubled his career earnings in just eight-races so far in 2024, winning three times along with finishing second on one occasion. This includes back-to-back victories at Mountaineer in June, putting up ESF's of 96 and 87. Additionally, that first victory was never remotely in doubt, it was an extremely impressive performance.

Whatever trainer Jose Lopez has done with this horse so far this year has clearly worked and the US Pools still have him as the joint-fifth favourite for the race, at odds of 6/1. If we get that later today when the race in priced-up, that is a more than solid roll of the dice.

*Remember to check out all of the latest Horse Racing Odds over at betfred.com

You can check out all of our other US Racing Tips here at Betfred Insights.