US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s Stateside selections for Friday

Our US horse racing tipster Paul Quigley has cast his expert eye over the cards on offer Stateside on Friday, landing on three from Pimlico.

Read on for his US racing tips for Friday, May 16.

21:07 Pimlico (Race 10) - You'll Be Back @ SP

Many chances here. Stunner (6) has a better claims than most. She has ran second in back-to-back graded stakes since returning as a three-year-old. In the latest, she ran into an improving filly with Volleyballprincess (2) and G W's Girl (4) behind her. Since that Keeneland Grade 2, she has worked well.

The other established class act in this field is Vodka With a Twist (12). She has top drawer form in route stakes including a runner up try in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That said, she’s never looked a natural stayer. It is worth bearing in mind her form sprinting last year. She was a winner and twice a runner up in stakes over one turn.

Echo Sound (8) won three of her last four starts at two including a $200,000 stake at Keeneland. There may be better to come from her. The one worry is lack a race since October and her trainer’s relatively modest record with lay off runners. Long Neck Paula (9) is race fit. She comes off fine effort in the slop at Keeneland.

G W's Girl (4) was progressing nicely before running poorly behind Stunner (6). She had You'll Be Back (11) three lengths behind her when winning a stake at Oaklawn in February. The last named had to be steadied early.

She will be a big price after not staying an extended mile at Colonial Downs in March. Less so Family (5) who came within a head of being unbeaten. She’s only raced on Tapeta but is bred to handle the dirt.

Mila Rose (10) and High Paf (3) are both two for two lifetime. Both fillies can’t be discounted despite the class rise. That is also the case with the hat-trick seeking Delray (7).

The last time Hollygrove (1) raced on dirt, she went close in a deep stake at Tampa. If the rail is the place to be, she’s a possible upsetter.

22:10 Pimlico (Race 12) - Encino @ SP

The returning Pyrenees (7) is the horse to beat. He showed good form during his four-year-old season, winning a Grade 3 and being placed in back-to-back Grade 1’s.

His run in The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic can be ignored as he had a ton of trouble. That Grade 3 win last term was this very event. He did have the benefit of a prep race beforehand. This year, it’s his first run of 2025. He has won first time back after his last two lay offs.

The Brad Cox trained pair look the most likely to upstage Pyrenees (7). Encino (3) comes off a fine effort in a Grade 3 on Tapeta at Turfway. He is a stakes winner on dirt. Most of his best efforts have been on the lead. He did win a stake as a three-year-old from off the pace. That may be crucial as there is other speed in here.

His stablemate Star of Wonder (8) is a progressive four-year-old who has lost only once. He started 2025 as he left 2024 with a victory. It will be no surprise if he wins in his first attempt in stakes company.

Unlike the other market leaders, Phileas Fogg (1) goes for a lower profile trainer. He was only a neck away from rattling up a five-timer in New York. His five length stakes victory at Aqueduct last month was a career best effort. He may slip under the wagering radar.

Cataleya Strike (2) won a stake at Laurel last month. He ran a big speed figure in the process. So did Awesome Aaron (4) when thrashing a field at Oaklawn. Red Route One (9) is a Grade 3 winner but was beaten four lengths by Pyrenees (7) in this race last year.

Just Steel (6) ran really well in the face of a stiff task in a Grade 1 on The Kentucky Derby undercard. His veteran trainer is no stranger to posting upsets in stakes, including last year’s Preakness.

22:44 Pimlico (Race 13) - Reply @ SP

This looks wide open.

The likelihood of this being run on some kind of off track only adds to the uncertainty. Paris Lily (6) and Liam in the Dust (1) ran one-two in an allowance optional claimer in the slop at Keeneland last month. This is in theory is a step up class. In truth, they meet a less than stellar group for a Grade 2. If Joel Rosario on Paris Lily (6) rides her aggressively again, she may make the lead on her own.

Margie's Intention (3) ran second to the same filly in back to back Louisiana bred stakes at The Fair Grounds in March. The winner lost nothing in defeat in a Grade 2 on The Kentucky Oaks undercard subsequently. That suggests she is up to this level. She won by a space on her one run on a wet track.

Runnin N Gunnin (4) was parked behind a slow pace when a well beaten third in a Grade 2 at Oaklawn in March. Some speed to chase down helps here chances. Likewise Amarth (8). She was a never nearer fifth in a Grade 1 at Keeneland last month. Her near miss in a stake at Aqueduct prior to that is a contending effort.

Reply (7) went into a stakes event at Laurel on the back of only a debut maiden victory. She narrowly missed with Moon Cache (9) only a head behind her. Her rider did seem to overdo the waiting tactics and she closed from an unpromising position. She meets a tougher field here but there may better to come from him. Interestingly, Irad Ortiz now takes the ride. If he can keep her closer, she may be involved late. A small win bet on her with forecasts with Margie's Intention (3) and Paris Lily (6) is one possible way to go.

Princess Aliyah (2) has come up well short in graded events either side of a stakes victory at Oaklawn. Kinzie Queen (5) gets a class test after a victory at the same venue. The pair can’t be discounted.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...