Saturday Racing Tips: Trust in Nicholls this weekend

It's the last Saturday before Christmas and there's six meetings - from Ascot, Haydock, Hereford, Newcastle, Thurles and Wolverhampton - for racing fans to enjoy.

My Saturday racing tips focuses on the Jumps action from Ascot and Hereford, with one trainer in particular fancied to have a fruitful afternoon.

11:58 Hereford - Big Ginge @ 5/4

The first of my Saturday racing tips is Nigel Twiston-Davies' BIG GINGE in Hereford's opener - a novice's hurdle over two miles.

The four-year-old was runner-up to Harry Fry's highly-regarded mare Anno Power on hurdles debut at Sandown over a month ago and looks to have been found a solid opportunity to go one better at the second attempt.

That race in Surrey has further depth to it, as the third-placed De Kingpin, who was over six lengths clear of the rest of the field, was a narrow second to Nicholls' Captain Bellamy in a Class 3 contest at Newbury just the other day. It was a very promising start to the selection's career over jumps.

Saturday's assignment rates a significantly easier one as far as I'm concerned. Big Ginge's big dangers according to the betting are Strong Foundations and No Questions Asked, who both carry seven-pound penalties for winning modest races - and after you consider owner/jockey Jamie Neild's seven-pound claim he's in receipt of a stone from the pair.

They've also both underwhelmed since, while the selection is entitled to improve as such a young horse having his fifth career start following an encouraging comeback from 200 days on the sidelines.

I'm hopeful the brilliantly-named Big Ginge can get us off to a flyer for the last weekend before Christmas.

12:40 Ascot - Just Lucky Sivola @ 9/4

We then go to Ascot for the first of three Paul Nicholls runners on my radar.

JUST LUCKY SIVOLA was just a neck behind an odds-on shot, rated 120, on his jumping debut at Plumpton in early November, and he improved for the run - as many a Ditcheat inmate has this term - when winning at Hereford just over three weeks later.

The five-year-old gelding just about got up to beat a well-backed rival, who had the 117-rated Ebony Warrior (conceding four pounds) six lengths behind. That margin was exaggerated by a bad mistake at the final flight, but it was far from a foregone conclusion regarding where he'd have finished with a clean leap.

On that evidence, I think an opening mark of 113 is on the lenient side, especially with improvement likely for the step up to just shy of three miles. He sure shapes like it's what he wants.

I think Circuit Breaker is a little overrated (118), while Thank You Ma'am is clearly Nicholls' second-string. Golden Cosmos returns from a 662-day layoff and the 94-rated Gotthereintheeend is hard to advise on all known form.

Golden Ambition is easily the most dangerous rival in my book. He looks progressive, but he's been winning poor races off lowly marks and this is comfortably his toughest test for a long time and he must defy a career-high 108.

There's lots in Just Lucky Sivola's favour here and hopefully he can prove the catalyst for a prolific afternoon for Mr. Nicholls.

13:38 Hereford - Regatta De Blanc @ 7/2

Just under an hour later, Nicholls saddles six-year-old REGATTA DE BLANC in a mares' handicap chase over 3m1f at Hereford.

This is a competitive field, but the daughter of Shirocco makes strong appeal off a mark of 125 with talented conditional Freddie Gingell claiming three pounds.

The selection joined the ranks at Ditcheat after winning six of seven starts between the flags and in hunters' chases Will Biddick and after a spin over hurdles at Chepstow in October, she finished runner-up to a progressive Kim Bailey gelding in an open handicap at Ascot the following month. Her conqueror has since run well off a seven-pound higher mark, giving the form a nice look.

It's hard to weigh up her form in PTPs and hunters' events, but she did give the 140-rated Secret Investor a good race at Newbury back in March which reads very well in context.

Regatta De Blanc takes on strictly her own sex for the first time and with a good run under her belt, she ought to make a very bold bid.

14:25 Ascot - Blueking D'oroux @ 10/1

Last but not least, I like BLUEKING D'OROUX in the big race of the afternoon - the G1 Long Walk Hurdle.

There's no superstar in this 10-strong field as far as I'm concerned, but it is very competitive and a case could be made for the majority of the runners.

But it's Nicholls' five-year-old who appeals most to me at an attractive price.

He exceeded expectations at four, winning three of his first four starts including Grade 2 success here in Berkshire in last November, before creditable runs in the most recent renewal of the Long Walk and then the G2 Select Hurdle at Sandown this April.

The son of Jeu St Eloi reappeared in the Ascot Hurdle last month and, giving weight away to all four rivals over an inadequate 2m3½f, was an encouraging second.

He acts well round here and should come on for the run and improve for the step up in trip. He beat the current Long Walk favourite Strong Leader 13 months ago and I think he's way overpriced to do so again.

Betfred are offering your stake back (up to £10) as a free bet if your selection in this race finishes 2nd.

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