Royal Ascot Lucky 15 Tips: In Hayley we trust, at 14/1

 | Wednesday 19th June 2024, 18:30pm

Wednesday 19th June 2024, 18:30pm

L15 Royal Ascot

A couple of days of frenetic action have confirmed just how difficult it is to take a top prize at the Royal meeting. The competition is absolutely white-hot and you need to bring your A-game and then some - see file marked Notable Speech, an imperious Guineas winner in May who must have run at least 7lb or probably more below form in the St James's Palace on Tuesday. Baffling. Hope he's ok.

Day Three spins into view, and with it our Royal Ascot Lucky 15 tips. So, for Thursday, June 20, here are the earnest deliberations from the yours truly jury of one. The glory, or the ignominy, is all mine. Cue Bond villain cackle ...

Royal Ascot Lucky 15 Tips Thursday

  • 14:30 - Saturday Flirt @ 8/1
  • 15:45 - Kalpana @ 13/2
  • 17:40 - King's Gambit @ 2/1
  • 18:15 - Fresh @ 14/1

Horse Racing Odds

14:30 - Saturday Flirt @ 8/1

American trainer Wes Ward has been a huge fan of Royal Ascot for many years, and saddled the winner of the Windsor Castle in 2009 at odds of 33/1 - a first for a US-based handler. He won the Queen Mary the following day too just for good measure. He has a golden touch with juveniles.

He's had a dozen scorers at the Royal meeting all told, and bids for another in Thursday's opener with Saturday Flirt. This two-year-old filly by Mendelssohn (a Breeders' Cup-winning colt who was trained by Aidan O'Brien) has had one outing so far, a maiden success at Keeneland under the brilliant Irad Ortiz Jr.

Irad has been on board Wes Ward raiders here before, as notably has Frankie Dettori, but this year it's the equally-impressive stateside jock Joel Rosario who's doing the steering. That win by the way was achieved over 5.5f, on firm ground.

Loving the fact that she prevailed over a slightly longer trip than today's minimum, and on fast ground, because as has been evidenced many times already this week you really do have to get home on this stiff track.

Ward's taken this Norfolk Stakes previously so knows exactly what's required. His filly is drawn six but this isn't a huge field and she should be able to go wherever she wants to with 'only' 13 scheduled to face the starter. Saturday Flirt races in the familiar colours of Mrs Fitri Hay who is enjoying a very successful spell of late.

Betfred are paying FOUR places each-way in the Norfolk.

15:45 - Kalpana @ 13/2

Three-year-old fillies now, in Ascot's 'Oaks.' The Ribblesdale often attracts horses that didn't quite manage to lift the big one for the ladies at Epsom, but we need to go down to around the current fourth-favourite to find one (You Got To Me).

The market principals all avoided the Downs including my hope Kalpana, Juddmonte-owned and beautifully-bred by a French Derby winner out of a Dansili mare.

Four career runs to date and not been out of the first two - the best of which was the Listed Pretty Polly at HQ 46 days ago over 2f shorter than today's mile-and-a-half. She ran on stoutly and looks sure to appreciate the step-up this afternoon.

Andrew Balding trains, and Oisin Murphy rides. Both have been among the winners and she's entered up in the King George, for which she's admittedly a big price. Lovely filly, and this could be graduation day.

Betfred are paying FOUR places each-way in the Ribblesdale.

17:40 - King's Gambit @ 2/1

Three-year-olds again, this time a 10f Group 3, and a dozen colts are expected to face the starter.

King's Gambit I suspect will be nap material for many today, and I'm happy to include myself in their number. He's by 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior and lifted his form to unprecedented heights last time at Newbury 33 days ago, stepping up to this trip for the first time.

He looked for all the world that day like the proverbial Group-quality performer in a handicap, and so in all fairness it proved.

Under today's jockey Will Buick he was a mightily impressive winner in an extremely valuable affair off a mark of 93, and he's officially rated a whopping 107 now. He has to improve further arguably to take this but that looks well within compass on what will still be only his fifth career start.

Young trainer Harry Charlton doubtless has Dad Roger's wise counsel close to hand when required, but I'm sure he would love to take this - as indeed would I.

Betfred are paying FOUR places each-way in the Hampton Court.

18:15 - Fresh @ 14/1

Lovely price as I write, but I tipped up Alsakib for example on Tuesday at 12/1 with a recommendation to back it independently each-way, and it started at 11/2 (and was duly placed).

Fresh lines up in this huge-field 7f cavalry charge with the inestimable benefit of Hayley Turner in the saddle. She's brilliant at finessing these classy handicappers into winning positions, and has done so on this course many times.

Fresh is an experienced seven-year-old Bated Breath gelding owned by Clipper Logistics. James Fanshawe trains. He ran in the furlong-shorter Wokingham this time last year off a mark of 101, and is down to a very tempting-looking 92 today.

At Haydock 12 days ago he ran on well in a 6f heat, beaten less than 2l, which should have tuned him up beautifully for this. He's not won since September 2022, hence the falling handicap mark. I can see a patient Hayley travelling in behind and picking off rivals one by one, fingers crossed.

At the price, a separate each-way interest might be a plan, too. I'm playing the Lucky 15 each-way and as a single addition this one appeals greatly in that regard - and we're paying six places.

This is an example of a Lucky 15. If you can improve upon my selections (of course you can), then go for it!

The odds can fluctuate between publishing our pieces and race-time. As a guide, a £0.25p each-way Lucky 15 on today's selections, at the prices, and assuming all four won, would return around £1300+ for your total £7.50 stake.

Fred, 'The Bonus King,' invented the 'Lucky' series of bets and their bonuses. My colleague Adam has set out all you need to know with this handy guide - take a look by clicking here.

lucky 15 offer 1

Lucky 15 tips from Betfred Insights

 

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