Nap of the Day: Winter to weather the storm at Cheltenham

The November Meeting at Cheltenham begins on Friday and my Nap of the Day comes from the home of Jumps racing.

It's one I've been waiting to run for a while, and I think he's got an excellent chance.

Storm Claudia is set to hit Cheltenham overnight, with forecasts of more than 30mm of rain to fall. Expect soft ground at best, then.

That won't be a problem for SHADE OF WINTER, who I also fancy is very well-handicapped, in the novices' handicap hurdle over an extended two miles that brings the card to a close.

Evan Williams' five-year-old son of Affinisea has been in my tracker for a while now and I was delighted to see him declared for a race of this quality. I'm taking that as a sign I'm on the right lines.

He finished runner-up, by just a couple of lengths, to subsequent Grade 1 winner Julius Des Pictons, who earned a rating of 137 after taking the Sefton Novices' Hurdle at Aintree's Grand National meeting, at Chepstow last Christmas. It goes without saying, that's a very smart piece of form.

There's depth to it, too. The third-placed Clap Of Thunder, who finished over four lengths adrift of the selection and a whopping 26 lengths clear of the rest of the field, boasts a rating of 118.

Shade Of Winter returned to the Welsh venue in the new year and this time bumped into Royal Rambler (127) for Emma Lavelle. That rival split a couple of nice types - The Jukebox Kid (129) and I'm A Lumberjack (120) - on his subsequent start at Uttoxeter.

On that evidence, I struggle to believe Shade Of Winter isn't a  good bit ahead of the assessor.

The booking of Harry Cobden only adds to my confidence. Not only is he one of the best jockeys in the country, but he excels at front-running, which I suspect will be the instruction on Friday. If conditions are desperate, it won't be easy for horses to make up significant ground from out the back, so tactically it could play in our favour.

The main concern is obviously Alphonse Le Grande, who has developed into a smart stayer on the flat, winning last year's Cesarewitch and reaching a rating of 93, since his last run over hurdles.

That was two years ago, at Ludlow, and he finished eight-and-a-quarter lengths down the field, but if his improvement translates over timber, he could be chucked in.

That's guesswork, though, while the case for Shade Of Winter is, at least as far as I'm concerned, crystal clear.

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