NAP of the Day: I sense an upset in the air

 | Tuesday 21st May 2024, 17:59pm

Tuesday 21st May 2024, 17:59pm

Owen McMahon's NAP of the Day

On a busy Wednesday featuring six meetings, I'm looking north of the border - more specifically to Ayr - for my NAP of the Day.

There's a red-hot favourite in the opener and I'm quietly confident about taking her on...

NAP of the Day

  • 14:20 Ayr - Mutamanni @ 5/2

William Haggas' Shy Hi Bye is, at time of publication, our 2/7 favourite for this six-furlong maiden that opens the card at Ayr on Wednesday.

On her narrow second in a fillies' novice on the all-weather at Newcastle in November last year, the three-year-old filly sets the standard in this modest field of six and is fully deserving of her position atop the betting.

That being said, the standard she sets is not an unreachable one. Far from it, in fact. She also has to back it up on turf, given her previous effort - admittedly over a longer trip on soft ground - was frankly unrecognisable. There's also a fitness doubt, with this being her first run after a 194-day break.

Even with all that, it would be no surprise to see her oblige. Four of her five rivals do little to inspire and I expect her to deal with those easily.

I can see George Boughey's MUTAMANNI troubling her though.

The three-year-old son of Showcasing, who was bought by the powerful Shadwell Estate for 140,000gns a couple years ago, interests me a lot in this company.

Clearly difficult to train, he was gelded well in advance of his racecourse debut at Yarmouth exactly three weeks ago when he was fourth, beaten just over seven lengths, out of nine in a competitive maiden.

On paper, it was nothing more than an average start to his career. However, after watching the full replay I saw a lot of promise in his performance.

Despite being keen throughout the early stages, he was travelling as good as anything bar the well-backed winner at the two-furlong pole before blowing up - understandably, given it was his debut.

With that run under his belt, I expect a significant amount of improvement. He'll strip fitter, hopefully be at least a bit more streetwise and as a result capable of putting up a stronger finishing effort.

If all that happens, he must have a great chance of putting it up to the favourite.

Mutamanni to win the 14.20 Ayr at 5-2

Find our NAP of the Day here at Betfred Insights

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