Nap of the Day: Leading lady Lilly can be the difference

Hopefully this week is a more successful one for my Nap of the Day selections, starting with one at Catterick on Tuesday looking to back up the first win of their career.

I'm a big fan of certain riders in restricted races - for example, Callum Pritchard in conditional company or Lily Pinchin in female-only affairs.

The latter, who has 77 wins from 724 rides (11% strike rate) on these shores over the past five years, is for me a major advantage in events like this female jockeys' handicap hurdle over 2m3½f at Catterick on Tuesday.

She rides Patrick Neville's UPFORDEBATE, who must have every chance of following up his win at Ayr a fortnight ago.

The six-year-old son of Mount Nelson showed precious little in his previous seven starts under rules, but beat as many rivals convincingly in Scotland last time out off a lowly mark of 86.

He travelled a lot better this time and after appearing a little outpaced three out, kept on finding under pressure to win going away by three lengths.

It was an unrecognisable effort compared to his previous efforts and there's a number of possible reasons for the improvement, not least the application of a first-time tongue tie.

It was also his first time, over obstacles at least, on ground worse than 'good' - and also the first time he went off a single-figure price.

Inconsistency is rife at this lowly level, but I don't think that victory was a fluke. I think there's more to come from this horse.

He's been raised six pounds, which is more like 11lbs considering his jockey last time out was claiming five. That's a steep enough rise, but as suggested he might just be on an upward curve and able to manage it. Also, it's not like connections are trying him particularly higher here.

I do think Quian poses a significant threat after his win last time out, but he's nine years old and unlikely to be improving, so I'm not convinced he'll back it up here.

Tarbat Ness is hard to weigh up on his first venture into handicaps, but I don't think he looks particularly well-treated - while the other five runners appear to be in the grasp of the handicapper.

It's low-grade stuff, so modest stakes are advised, but Upfordebate looks a good bet to me.

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