NAP of the Day: An evening of firsts at Musselburgh?

 | Thursday 13th June 2024, 8:19am

Thursday 13th June 2024, 8:19am

Owen McMahon's NAP of the Day

First Alliance to record his first win in the first race at Musselburgh - that's the story behind the latest NAP of the Day.

Read on for the detailed reasoning behind Thursday's selection.

NAP of the Day

  • 18:10 Musselburgh - First Alliance @ 11/4

The opener at Musselburgh on Thursday evening is a mile-long maiden for horses with three or less runs under their belt - and I see it going the way of FIRST ALLIANCE for Karl Burke.

According to the 18:10 Musselburgh Odds at time of publication, the weight of expectation will be carried by William Haggas' National Interest.

The son of Kingman fetched €800,000 during the summer of 2022 and it's fair to say he's failed to live up to that lofty price tag to date.

He showed promise in defeat on his debut in France that August, but his subsequent effort in a Newbury novice a month later was poor.

As a result, connections called time on his juvenile campaign and then had him gelded in February this year - and now he returns to the track following 264 days on the sidelines.

Perhaps that operation and extra time to mature is exactly what he needed to be able to show the ability he clearly possesses, but for me he's far too risky a proposition at current prices.

First Alliance has also struggled to justify the money (500,000gns) splashed on him a couple of years ago and isn't risk-free in his own right, but he's less risky as far as I'm concerned and of course you're getting a much more attractive price.

The Dubawi colt made his debut at Southwell last December, dead-heating for second behind the now 88-rated Sir Les Patterson, but he failed to improve on it when fourth in a Newcastle this March.

I say that, but it was a very competitive affair the last day. The winner Inisherin, who was seven lengths ahead of the selection, is now rated 113 after winning the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock the other week, while the runner-up Kalpana has also since earned a three-figure mark (104).

Given how keen Daniel Tudhope's mount was off a slow pace, it probably wasn't too bad of a run in hindsight and more can be expected on Thursday.

The big concern is the fact he's had another lengthy spell off the track - 98 days to be precise - suggesting a setback, but if he's anything like 100% I'm quite hopeful about him beating his other eight rivals and hopefully the favourite will underperform again.

First Alliance to win the 18.10 Musselburgh at 11-4

Find our NAP of the Day here at Betfred Insights

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