Nap of the Day: Varian filly can complete hat-trick

It's a tough game sometimes. Despite significant support in the pre-race betting, Saturday's selection failed to do the business after a slow start. 

Hopefully luck will be on my side on 24 hours later, when I go to Nottingham for the Nap of the Day.

I'm expecting Roger Varian's JOWDDAH to complete a hat-trick at Nottingham on Sunday.

The three-year-old daughter of New Bay failed to win any of her three starts last season, finishing runner-up on each occasion, but she showed plenty of ability at the same time.

Her narrow defeat to Rhapsody and beating of subsequent G3 Nell Gwyn Stakes heroine Zanzoun, rated 106, at Yarmouth in October is a particularly smart piece of form.

It's been a different story this season, though. After winning on reappearance at Newcastle in April, the Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum-owned filly went in again on her return to Yarmouth a month later, taking a 0-85 handicap off a mark of 83.

That form looks strong. Runner-up Saariselka occupied the same spot in a decent fillies' handicap at Newmarket off a pound higher next time out, with She's The Duchess, who dead-heated with the former on the East Coast and also raised a solitary pound, close behind in fourth.

Arabian Leopard, who was fourth at Yarmouth, obliged in no uncertain terms on his subsequent start at HQ before finishing runner-up off six pounds higher at Haydock on Saturday, the same afternoon that Shining Pearl (fifth) was just touched off in a maiden at Chester.

Considering the quality of that form, I think a three-pound rise for Jowddah is rather generous. I've seen bigger hikes for placed horses.

There's undoubtedly more to come from this filly, who's only had five career starts and is clearly improving for age.

On top of all that, I believe this to be a modest affair. Ralph Beckett's Treasure is the definition of inconsistency and she must concede over a stone and a half plus fitness to the selection.

Famous last words, but Supermodel's mark of 83 looks utterly bizarre on what she achieved - very little - in two runs last season. She too has a 200+ day layoff to defy.

Yokkell arrives in Nottinghamshire after a super success over course and distance, so the six-year-old is respected, but she is the most exposed runner in the lineup and is up to a career-high mark. Alessia Fernanda finds herself in a similar boat.

Gaiety Musical is an interesting outsider. With Jack Callan's seven-pound claim she's off an attractive mark, though I'd be disappointed if she was able to beat Jowddah at the same time.

She has plenty in her favour and I make her more of an even-money shot than a 7/4 chance.

Click the links for the latest Horse Racing Odds and Today's Horse Races

Tune into Betfred Insights regularly to find our experts' Nap of the Day