NAP of the Day: Back this 5/2 shot at Doncaster
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On a super Saturday featuring Trials Day at Cheltenham, it's over to Doncaster for the NAP of the Day.
NAP of the Day
- 14:40 Doncaster - Welcom To Cartries @ 5/2
It's fair to say that Lorcan Williams wasn't in Paul Nicholls' good books after Stay Away Fay was denied in last year's River Don Novices' Hurdle at Doncaster.
The 14-time Champion Trainer has never shied away from expressing his opinion that the subsequent Albert Bartlett hero "should have won" the Grade 2 contest, suggesting the young jockey was at least partly to blame.
Well, he has an excellent chance of writing that wrong aboard Welcom To Cartries on Saturday.
I rate this a weak renewal of the River Don. Kim Bailey's 130-rated Destroytheevidence sets the standard on his second behind Shanagh Bob in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham late last year, but that was his sixth run over hurdles and he's starting to look exposed.
I Love My Baie won easily at Ayr last time out and another step up in trip should suit, but it was a poor race he won and his previous two efforts leave him with plenty to find at this level.
Similar comments apply to Espirit Du Potier, while I see no reason why Kerryhill would reverse form with the aforementioned Destroytheevidence - and frankly I struggle to envisage any of the other five getting the job done.
Welcom To Cartries is already rated equal to Destroytheevidence and having only ran twice this season - and just three times in his career including a PTP - he's likely to have much more to offer.
There was lots to like about his performance in a maiden hurdle at Ascot on his rules debut in November last year, just missing out to a race-fit and well-backed Beat The Bat, who's now rated 132, for Harry Fry.
He then got off the mark at the second attempt when upped a couple of furlongs in trip at the same venue just before Christmas. That was a weaker race, but he won easily in the end, pulling further and further away at the line.
I think he's absolutely crying out for this greater test of stamina and, with improvement expected, he could prove too good for this field.
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