Nap of the Day: 10/3 Dens worth a wager on Saturday

 | Friday 15th November 2024, 18:04pm

Friday 15th November 2024, 18:04pm

Nap of the day with owen mcmahon (2)

Despite significant support before the off, Friday's each-way Nap of the Day could only finish fifth, failing to land a return in the process.

Frustrating, but we go again 24 hours later as I put my faith in a 10/3 shot at Wetherby.

Nap of the Day - Saturday, November 16

  • 13:35 Wetherby - Densworth @ 10/3

Ben Pauling's DENSWORTH is an inconsistent type, but he's very good on a going day - and if Saturday is one of those, I strongly fancy his chances in this 0-140 handicap chase over 2m3½f.

The seven-year-old son of Kayf Tara has been very frustrating to follow since joining Pauling's Cheltenham base for £65k in July 2020, with his career form reading 0152110105.

Add up the winning margins of those four wins and you get a whopping 69½ lengths. He's tended to either bolt up, or fall out the back of the TV.

However, his chase debut at Aintree last month was highly-encouraging. He was fifth of seven, beaten over 18 lengths, but it was a warm contest won by the then 124-rated Imperial Saint, who subsequently bolted up over the same course and distance off four pounds higher. He's now rated 138.

Runner-up Petit Tonnerre goes in the G2 Arkle Trial at Cheltenham and hopefully gives a good account of himself, while the likes of Parisencore and Hidalgo de L'Isle (engaged in the 12:27 Wetherby) are decent yardsticks as far as I'm concerned.

I've watched back that race on Merseyside and the selection looked a natural over the bigger obstacles and was travelling as well as pretty much anything until the approach to the second-last, when he seemed to just run out of steam.

Pauling confirmed as much in a recent stable tour with Sporting Life, saying: "He took a right old blow up at Aintree on his comeback and the plan is to run this weekend at either Wetherby or Newcastle. You should see a different horse on his next start."

He also suggested the new two and a half-mile novices' handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival as a potential spring target for the horse - an indication of the ability he must show at home.

The handicapper has dropped Densworth three pounds for his latest effort and conditional jockey Callum Pritchard, who boasts an impressive strike rate over fences - 29 per cent this season and 19 per cent over the past five years - takes off a further 10, so he's essentially 10lbs lower here.

If he progresses as much as his trainer expects and, crucially, he's on a going day, he could frankly make a mockery of carrying 10st 7lbs here, getting a whopping 21 pounds from nine-year-old market leader Pay The Piper, who's up seven pounds for winning a modest contest at Kelso last month.

He's the one to beat, as I wouldn't be too concerned by Glory And Honour, Findthetime and to a lesser extent Escapeandevade - and there must be every chance he'll do exactly that.

13:35 Wetherby - Winner Densworth

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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Tune into Betfred Insights regularly to find my Nap of the Day

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