Lucky 15 Tips: ‘Aussie Tom’ looks a great booking at HQ

Tuesday - Thursday inclusive this week it's the Craven Meeting at Newmarket, so I think it's an easy decision to grab our Lucky 15 tips from HQ at least on day one.

The action kicks in at 13:50 with seven outstanding heats - arguably the pick being the Nell Gwyn (15:35). Top jocks and trainers abound (easier to list who isn't here - Rossa Ryan for one, booked to ride two at Kempton - I'll be examining them closely!)

Horse Racing Odds

Today's Horse Races

13:50 - Physique @ 5/1

This looks a wide-open handicap and I've plumped for a five-year-old Kingman gelding, trained about 60 miles away by Pam Sly at Thorney.

Physique is unchanged on a mark of 86 after running Dark Thirty to less than 2l at Doncaster 16 days ago. That rival re-opposes but we're 3lb better off and once again the brilliant Oisin Murphy, outstanding at Newbury on Saturday, takes the mount.

His latest trainer only acquired the horse last month and that was run number one for new connections. He started with Paul and Oliver Cole, joined Micky Fenton, and is now with Pam (overall two wins from 19 career starts).

He was running on at Donny and this stiff finish could be exactly what he needs. Big shout, and won here as a two-year-old on his second start.

14:25 - Green Storm @ 6/1

I like the jockey booking on this three-year-old Circus Maximus colt, as trainer Charlie Johnston has secured the services of top-drawer globe-trotter Tom Marquand.

Green Storm makes the trip down from Middleham Moor as the field's most experienced runner, and a look at the jockeys who've already sat on him confirms the stable's evident high opinion - Oisin Murphy, Danny Muscutt, Jim Crowley and Billy Loughnane.

In six starts all told he's yet to finish out of the first three, and ran well here on his penultimate start in a G3, going under by 1.5l to a nice type of Ralph Beckett's, Starzzintheireyes. Better was to come, as he signed off for the year with another second, this time in a G1, at St Cloud.

Connections could have a lot of fun with him this term and he rates value in my book at current prices.

15:00 - Persica @ 5/1

Always worth taking note when Ryan Moore is engaged by the Hannon yard, and that's the case here with the four-year-old colt Persica, by French Derby winner New Bay.

He's been pretty highly-tried throughout his career, making his overall record of five wins from 13 starts all the more meritorious. Ambiente Friendly is a little bit of an enigma for me and I'm happy to watch until or unless he can convert his obvious early promise, while much-travelled Ottoman Fleet could be a big danger.

Happy to side with the old firm though in what looks a fascinating clash for the G3 Earl of Sefton.

15:35 - Arabian Dusk @ 3/1

Three-year-old G3 fillies in the famous Nell Gwyn Stakes, over 7f, and I'm with a daughter of Havana Grey trained locally by the Crisfords.

Arabian Dusk has managed five starts so far, and her efforts have been extremely consistent. Best run arguably was the last, 3.5l behind Lake Victoria in the G1 Cheveley Park here (winner went on to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf).

She'll appreciate the calmer waters and James Doyle, in cracking form (33% strike-rate in the last fortnight), takes the mount for the first time. Smashing heat.

This is an example of a Lucky 15. If you can improve upon my selections (of course you can), then go for it!

The odds can fluctuate between publishing our pieces and race-time. As a guide, a £0.50p win Lucky 15 on today's selections, at the prices, and assuming all four won, would return around £970 for your total £7.50 stake.

Fred, 'The Bonus King,' invented the 'Lucky' series of bets and their bonuses. My colleague Adam has set out all you need to know with this handy guide - take a look by clicking here.

Horse Racing & Greyhound bets only. Excludes Virtual Racing. 5x odds on Lucky 63. 4x Odds Lucky 31. 3x Odds Lucky 15. All selections must run. Paid in cash if only 1 winner. T&Cs Apply.

Lucky 15 tips from Betfred Insights.