Lucky 15 Tips: Hayley can do the business for us

Greetings dear reader - we're over the midweek hump, and Thursday December 5 is pretty much upon us. For our Lucky 15 tips I'm heading to Chelmsford, and a nine-race late afternoon/early evening affair on their all-weather Polytrack surface. Just the one scorer yesterday for us at Lingers, but that's infinitely better than none, and we had some misfortune too, with a non-runner.

Good-sized, competitive fields are the order of the day in Essex, so an each-way take on proceedings is a wise move, methinks. The action kicks in at 16:10, and if you're playing, enjoy.

Horse Racing Odds

Today's Horse Races

16:10 - Forever Proud @ 6/1

Today's card is, as mentioned earlier, super-competitive, and I'm happy to utilise the each-way option even though one of the selections isn't a typical win and place price. The device will keep the bet going though if we have a bit of luck in grabbing some places, and to a small outlay will provide plenty of fun for much of the card's first half.

We start then with a 10f handicap, and a four-year-old Sioux Nation filly trained at HQ by James Owen. Forever Proud gets hot apprentice Sean D Bowen on top, who knows the horse well, and the yard are flying along at a 25% strike-rate over the last fortnight.

She's been running over a mile in her last handful of outings, but reverts to 1m 2f after not threatening last time 38 days ago at Newcastle. Owen's only had the horse since September and is rather building a reputation for reviving the fortunes of horses who appear to have regressed (Overnight Oats is a good example - he completed a hat-trick, tipped up by the column, at Lingfield on Wednesday).

The handicapper has rather looked in charge of Forever Proud for her last few spins but in what's now the fifth start for new connections I'm hoping they're beginning to work her out, and that a big run is at hand.

16:40 - By The Book @ 6/5

Two three-year-old Godolphin geldings clash here over 10f, plus a supporting cast that includes one of Andrew Balding's, in a relatively minor but utterly fascinating novice heat.

By The Book is housed at Charlie Appleby's Moulton Paddocks base in Newmarket, and won a similar contest at 7f powerfully and decisively at Haydock in June. He was promptly gelded and reappears here, a son of Frankel no less, looking to pay his way.

The other boy in blue is the Team Gosden-trained Jolly Jack Tar, gelded even before setting foot on the track, one win from two spins, but slightly less stoutly bred for me (by Too Darn Hot; arguably failed to really see out the trip the only time he tried above a mile in York's Dante Stakes of 2019).

All roads for me then lead to the Appleby tool powering clear in the demanding straight, and he'd readily be my nap of the day.

17:10 - Existent @ 11/4

A six-year-old Kingman gelding in the care of the shrewd Stuart Williams, again at HQ.

Existent has been in decent, fairly consistent nick in 2024 without crucially managing to get his head in front. He drops to a Class 3 handicap today, as a course-and-distance scorer, having competed in loftier company since August 2021.

He's down to a career-low mark of 81, and has Derby-winning jockey Richard Kingscote on board, who does know the horse. Looks like a terrific opportunity to strike to me. Nicely drawn in the two-box for this 5f dash, and though invariably held up, can perhaps come with a run up the fence in the straight.

17:40 - Tradesman @ 5/1

The old firm, one of a stack in racing to be fair, of Dave Simcock and Hayley Turner.

Tradesman carries the familiar colours of Khalifa Dasmal & Partners, and has won here previously at this 1m 6f distance. The five-year-old Mastercraftsman gelding must overcome an absence of 179 days but connections know the time of day and it's Hayley's only booked ride on the card.

When last in this grade he was highly competitive, and I'm hoping for a great run at a value price.

This is an example of a Lucky 15. If you can improve upon my selections (of course you can), then go for it!

The odds can fluctuate between publishing our pieces and race-time. As a guide, a £0.25p each-way Lucky 15 on today's selections, at the prices, and assuming all four won, would return around £220 for your total £7.50 stake.

Fred, 'The Bonus King,' invented the 'Lucky' series of bets and their bonuses. My colleague Adam has set out all you need to know with this handy guide - take a look by clicking here.

Horse Racing & Greyhound bets only. Excludes Virtual Racing. 5x odds on Lucky 63. 4x Odds Lucky 31. 3x Odds Lucky 15. All selections must run. Paid in cash if only 1 winner. T&Cs Apply.

Lucky 15 tips from Betfred Insights.