Lucky 15 Tips: Moore has a shot at Yarmouth

Flat racing holds sway across Britain and Ireland on Thursday with five meetings taking place across the afternoon and into the evening. Plus two jump meetings.

First off is Haydock, then they go at Perth, Yarmouth, Tipperary, Bellewstown, Kempton and Newbury. Read on for my Lucky 15 tips below.

16:32 Yarmouth - Inquisition @ 5/4

Ryan Moore hasn’t frequented Yarmouth too often, but he has a very healthy strike-rate of 26 per cent over the last five years. He has every chance of a winner or two, and one of those is the James Fanshawe-trained Inquisition. She was spotted as one who was very well handicapped when given an opening mark of 60 at Yarmouth, but failed to justify odds of 15/8.

The step up in trip was bound to suit, being a daughter of Sea The Stars and also having Dubawi as the dam’s sire, and it proved to be the case, winning by three-quarters of a length and proving odds-on backers to be correct.

She’s upped 5lb, which is arguably slightly harsh given that the race she won was fairly weak, but she’s a well-bred filly and has all the makings of a horse who should be better than 65.

18:10 Tipperary - Gaucher @ 3/1

Willie Mullins has won five of the last 10 runnings of the Grimes Hurdle, but even he may have been a bit surprised last year with Winter Fog winning at odds of 22/1, with odds-on jolly Daddy Long Legs, also trained by the maestro, never getting involved.

The 11-year-old comes back for another crack at this race, but considering age and penalty, it looks a tough ask. Mullins has plenty of ammo, and has two other entries for this. Batman Girac looks a young, improving horse, but Gaucher, who has the services of Paul Townend, has shown good enough form that suggests he is capable of winning this.

He already has a Grade 3 to his name, winning at Naas earlier in the year, and ran a good race after that, trailing another Mullins inmate, Irancy, who has since gone on to win a Grade 1. He too has to overcome a penalty, giving 2lb to Winter Fog and 9lb to Jesse Evans, but he’s got more to come, whereas the others are very much exposed. Don’t let the penalty put you off him.

18:58 Kempton - Assail @ 15/2

The1m4f handicap at Kempton looks a very competitive affair with plenty of course-and-distance winners appearing. The one who catches the eye is the David Simcock-trained Assail.

He won here three starts ago in a race that has worked out very well. The first three pulled well clear of the field, with the placed pair dead-heating for second. Wonder Legend, rated 92 at the time, is now on 108, and Night Breeze, who was rated 79, is now on a mark of 86.

Assail failed to follow up from that, although he wasn’t seen again for 153 days, when he made an appearance at Meydan.

He then ran at Newmarket over further and was well beaten again. He’s back at a trip and surface he has proved himself on and offers a good bit of value. He can bounce back here.

20:43 Kempton - Alcazan @ 11/2

There are certain horses who are more reliable than others, and one of those is Roger Teal’s likeable mare Alcazan. When you back a genuine horse like her, you know she’s going to give it her all and has no issues getting her head in front, with 11 wins from 58 runs, a strike-rate of just under 19 per cent.

There is no bias between turf or all-weather, with six wins on turf and five on the sand. Her win at Ascot late last season took her up to a career-high mark of 81, and she has spent most of this season getting her rating down.

She’s back to a range she can be competitive off, and it showed at Chester last time, finishing second and overcoming a wide draw, which is notoriously difficult on the Roodee.

She has been upped 1lb for that and, with the handicapper clearly being impressed with the performance, it shouldn’t make a difference to her chances. Elizabeth Gale takes off 7lb. Her strike-rate isn’t particularly eye-catching, but she’s had a few winners in the last few weeks, including a favourite at the Curragh for Joseph O’Brien. You wouldn’t be getting those rides if you weren’t up to it, and that signals that she is an apprentice to trust going forward.

This is an example of a Lucky 15. If you can improve upon my selections (of course you can), then go for it!

The odds can fluctuate between publishing our pieces and race-time. As a guide, a £0.50p win Lucky 15 on today's selections, at the prices, and assuming all four won, would return around £578.41 for your total £7.50 stake.

Fred, 'The Bonus King,' invented the 'Lucky' series of bets and their bonuses. My colleague Adam has set out all you need to know with this handy guide - take a look by clicking here.

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