ITV Racing Tips: Karl’s filly looks smart at HQ

Welcome to another cracking Saturday of live ITV action beamed across the nation. Arguably the highlight of today's horse races is the historic 'Pitmen's Derby' from Newcastle, the Northumberland Plate, and we've action from Newmarket too including the Group 3 Criterion.

Eight contests in total, with the first of these scheduled for 13:35. We didn't in all candour cover ourselves in glory at Royal Ascot, despite having a fabulous week that preceded it. We've not been pulling up too many trees this week either - but to paraphrase Vivien Leigh, 'today is, er, another day.' Or something like that. If you're playing have fun, take care, and good luck!

Horse Racing Odds

Today's full ITV schedule;

Newcastle
13:35 JenningsBet Handicap 6f
14:04 JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes - Group 3 6f
14:35 JenningsBet Northumberland Vase - Handicap 2m
15:10 JenningsBet Northumberland Plate - Handicap 2m
15:40 Download the Raceday Ready App Handicap 7f

Newmarket
14:15 Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Stakes - Listed 6f
14:50 Cavani Menswear Fred Archer Stakes - Listed 1m 4f
15:25 Cavani Criterion Stakes - Group 3 7f

Rationale;

13:35 Newcastle - King's Lynn each-way @ 15/2

Plenty of prize-money around on Northumberland Plate day, and we kick-off with a competitive-looking 6f sprint worth £25k to the winner.

King's Lynn raids from Andrew Balding's Kingsclere base, an experienced seven-year-old gelding who was previously owned by her late Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, and then the present King and Queen. The horse is now listed as being the property of his trainer.

He ran in a similar heat at Hamilton 27 days ago, but over the minimum trip, and couldn't land a blow. Stepping up now is surely a plus, as is his run here off a 2lb higher mark in May under Oisin Murphy, running on at this distance in finishing a decent third.

The excellent David Probert takes over in the plate on Saturday, and drawn in 11 must ensure he doesn't get boxed-in towards the near rail when hopefully making his challenge, presumably late.

It's been a long time between drinks, with his last success being under today's pilot at Haydock two years ago. But that was a Group 2 worth over twice the amount of prize money on offer here and he was rated 108 at the time.

Off 92 today, his lowest mark since October 2020, he has for me a terrific chance of being right in the thick of it. We're paying four places each-way and that's exactly the way I'm leaning.

14:04 Newcastle - Kinross @ 3/1

Ah, Kinross. An unfortunate non-runner at the recent Royal meeting, and a fantastic, consistent, hugely-talented seven-year-old Kingman gelding.

He's a Group 1 winner in a Group 3 here today, with the race conditions favouring him nicely. He's readily the highest-rated entrant and escapes any penalties as he's not won after August 31st last year, the cut-off date.

He took a Group 2 at York in highly timely fashion five days before that deadline, so carries 9st 5lb here as does the rest of the field, bar the solitary three-year-old. If he's straight, for me, he wins.

Assuming he was ready to go at Ascot before being pulled that question shouldn't arise, and from the three box will avoid any potential near-side scrimmaging in the latter stages.

A terrific heat - one to savour.

14:15 Newmarket - Teej A @ 4/1

A two-year-old Listed contest, and the formidable Karl Burke provides my selection Teej A, a highly-promising Mehmas filly.

Three runs, two wins, and an upwardly-mobile profile. Beat Rashabar readily at Chester, and that one went on to win the Coventry at the Royal meeting. Followed that up with an Epsom win, so we know she's tough, adaptable, and certainly talented. Huge chance, with Burke an absolute master in such waters.

14:35 Newcastle - Faylaq each-way @ 8/1

A consolation race for those who didn't make the cut for the big one, over the same marathon trip.

Faylaq is trained by in-form Jim Goldie (25% strike-rate over the last fortnight), about 150 miles away over the border in East Renfrewshire. The eight-year-old Dubawi gelding's handicap mark has been sliding down of late, despite a string of there and thereabouts performances.

He tries this trip now for the first time and as we're paying four places each-way I don't want him to go unsupported. The outstanding Paul Mulrennan rides, and if handling the 2m-and-change can most certainly make his presence felt. Shrewd trainer, top jock, nice pot.

He went well here in March over admittedly only 10f but certainly acts on the Tapeta.

14:50 Newmarket - King Of Conquest @ 6/4

I backed Aimeric last time to beat King Of Conquest at Goodwood, and in-running it never in all candour looked likely. I loved the way Crystal Delight powered home at York, too, but I'm looking elsewhere today.

Try as I might to find an alternative, I keep returning to the aforementioned five-year-old Godolphin gelding King Of Conquest. He took that Listed race, holding Aimeric by nearly 3l, around 20 days ago. It was a fine run, and prior to that had nearly upset Middle Earth in a Newbury Group 3, going down by a nose.

That winner subsequently was well-fancied for the Group 2 Hardwicke at the Royal meeting, finishing late to be third. Will Buick is on board today for Charlie Appleby, and I hope King Of Conquest can continue in this rich vein of form. A fascinating clash, short on runners perhaps but high in intrigue.

15:10 Newcastle - Onesmoothoperator each-way @ 9/1

The Northumberland Plate - the most prestigious and historic race of Newcastle's season and a feature at Gosforth Park since 1882.

My e/w hope (we're paying five places) is Brian Ellison's Onesmoothoperator. He's a six-year-old American-bred gelding in rude order so far in 2024, knocking on the door in good-quality contests without quite battering it down - yet.

He took a big prize here last back-end, the November Handicap, off 89. That was of course over 4f shorter, but last time out 62 days ago at Southwell he got this trip perfectly well enough and looks to have been put away nicely under wraps for this ever since.

Another trainer who very much knows the time of day, and the excellent Connor Beasley rides.

15:25 Newmarket - Tiber Flow @ 4/1

An absolute cracker, a Group 3 over 7f.

Tiber Flow represents William Haggas (22% strike-rate, last 14 days), and top jockey Tom Marquand. The five-year-old gelding took a similar affair at Haydock impressively three weeks ago, and after a slightly troubled passage the performance could be marked up a tad in my view.

He's penalised 3lb for it so carries 9st 11lb, with his rivals all on 9st 8lb. Fingers crossed for Tom to help eke out the extra required to enable him to follow-up.

15:40 Newcastle - Local Hero @ 5/1

The song Newcastle United play as the team walks out on to the St James's Park turf is called Going Home, the closing track from the film Local Hero. What more appropriate winner could we have then on Pitmen's Derby day, up in the heart of Geordieland?

Hollie Doyle rides, for trainer Richard Hannon, and the three-year-old colt has already won two of his four career starts. After a cosy success last time at Kempton over this 7f trip he now steps up two handicap grades to tackle a Class 2.

Last time in Sunbury-on-Thames was a career-high, and as it's highly unlikely we've seen anything like the best of him further improvement could well be on the cards on Saturday.

His sire Phoenix Of Spain won the Irish 2000 Guineas at a mile, and I'm thinking Local Hero will be hitting the line hard.

 ITV Racing Tips from Betfred Insights.