Cheltenham Ante-Post Tips 2024: Stay Away Fay the Brown Advisory play

Following an informative Trials Day, I think there's been an underreaction to one performance in particular - and as a result the horse in question is written into my 2024 Cheltenham Festival antepost book.

I must say, Stay Away Fay made a believer out of me at Cheltenham on Trials Day.

I'm of the opinion that Paul Nicholls' seven-year-old won a bang-average Albert Bartlett at least year's Festival and that what he'd achieved over fences prior to last weekend left something to be desired, but his performance in the G2 Cotswold Chase won me over.

To finish third, beaten just over three lengths, behind Willie Mullins' Capodanno who, despite being a seasoned chaser, was in receipt of three pounds is a serious piece of form for a lightly-raced novice chaser.

I'm sure many are writing off Stay Away Fay's conqueror Capodanno as simply a back-number for Willie Mullins, but that's a lazy view. He's a Grade 1 winner who was only a head behind Gerri Colombe and eight lengths in front of Irish Grand National hero I Am Maximus in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Also, don't forget that the selection was less than a length behind The Real Whacker, last year's Brown Advisory winner who was a good fourth in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day after an interrupted preparation.

Clearly I'm not the only one that was impressed, for the handicapper has upgraded Stay Away Fay's mark to 159 - a nine-pound rise. Here's how his new rating compares to the last 10 winners of the Cheltenham Festival's three-mile novice chase:

• 2023 - The Real Whacker (153)
• 2022 - L'Homme Presse (159)
• 2021 - Monkfish (164)
• 2020 - Champ (153)
• 2019 - Topofthegame (155)
• 2018 - Presenting Percy (158)
• 2017 - Might Bite (154)
• 2016 - Blaklion (150)
• 2015 - Don Poli (156)
• 2014 - O'Faolains Boy (144)

Favourably, is the answer. He's already bang there on figures and it would be remiss to think there's not more to come, given that was just his third run over fences and seventh under rules.

Perhaps it's because he was sent off favourite on Saturday, but there seems to have been a somewhat cold reaction - from punters and bookies alike - to Stay Away Fay's run. I obviously disagree, but that suits me as I think 11/2 is now a fantastic price for the Brown Advisory, which could yet cut up massively.

I expect Grangeclare West to line-up here under Paul Townend but I'm hoping that Fact To File, who I tipped at 16/1 for the Turners back in November last year, beats him at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend and remains over that intermediate trip.

Grey Dawning was impressive the last day but in a race that fell apart and Stay Away Fay has already got the better of him this season. Embassy Gardens looks National Hunt Chase-bound. Corbetts Cross could also go that route - as could Nick Rockett. Gaelic Warrior is destined for shorter trips.

This is Stay Away Fay's target and unless something out of the ordinary happens over in Ireland, I can only envisage him being shorter than this.

Stay tuned to Betfred Insights for more Cheltenham Tips as we build-up to the 2024 Festival