Who wins the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – Europe’s richest and most prestigious flat race – at Longchamp on Sunday?
I’ve tried to answer that very question, landing on two – featuring a 20/1 shot for the race’s winning-most trainer.
Ace Impact @ 11/4
It’s not very imaginative, I know, but after much deliberation, I keep coming to the same conclusion: Ace Impact wins the Arc.
The three-year-old son of Cracksman looks special. He’s unbeaten in five starts, including the French Derby at Chantilly in June and I suspect he has a lot more to give.
I was impressed with his prep run in the G2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville in August, cosily beating his seven rivals despite trainer Jean-Claude Rouget, who won his first Arc with Sottsass in 2020, warning that the colt wasn’t fully fit.
He’s ground versatile, looks sure to appreciate the trip and we all know how valuable that weight-for-age allowance is – and, for added confidence, he’s been handed a favourable draw in stall 8.
What strengthens the selection’s case even further, are the negatives surrounding his main rivals. King George winner Hukum and runner-up Westover are burdened by draws in 14 and 1 respectively, while Betfred St Leger hero, Continuous, has to break the trend of no Doncaster Classic winners following up at Longchamp in the same season.
If backing 11/4 shots in 15-runner renewals of one of the season’s biggest races isn’t for you, that’s fair enough, but for me Ace Impact looks rock solid.
Place Du Carrousel e/w @ 20/1
I’m not putting all my eggs in one basket, however. Maybe I’m wrong about Ace Impact, or things don’t go to plan on the day – and if that happens, I think Place Du Carrousel could pick up the pieces.
For the most part, the daughter of Lope De Vega wasn’t pulling up trees as a three-year-old. However, her victory in the G1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp over 1m2f to end the season, beating Nashwa no less, was right out of the top drawer.
She’s picked up where she left off as a four-year-old, backing up a respectable comeback with back-to-back victories in a pair of Group 3 and Group 2 contests, at Deauville and Longchamp respectively.
The latter performance, I want to home in on. That was over course and distance and she reversed form with the high-class Iresine, who was 4L in front of the selection in the aforementioned comeback run.
It appears she’s been brought along slowly this season by the masterful Andre Fabre, the Arc’s winning-most trainer, no doubt with Sunday’s big race at the forefront throughout.
She looks overpriced, so I just have to put her up each-way.
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