ZOZO Championship 2024 Tips: Four to get it done in Japan

There are just four events remaining of the FedExCup Fall and the PGA Tour heads international to Japan this week, for the ZOZO Championship at Narashino Country Club.

As always, here are Jamie Worsley's ZOZO Championship 2024 Tips, as well as his usual comprehensive preview.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The ZOZO Championship is a no-cut tournament that debuted in 2019 and was the first PGA Tour-sanctioned event to take place in Japan. The inaugural edition was a memorable one, as Tiger Woods beat home favourite, Hideki Matsuyama here at Narashino Country Club by three strokes.

After Patrick Cantlay won the 2020 renewal in California at Sherwood Country Club due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it returned to Narashino in 2021, and the Japanese fans were rewarded for their patience. Having won The Masters earlier that year, Hideki Matsuyama put on a show in front of the home crowd, running out an emphatic five-shot winner.

Tournament winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Collin Morikawa (-14); runners-up: Eric Cole, Beau Hossler (-8)
• 2022 – Winner: Keegan Bradley (-15); runners-up: Rickie Fowler, Andrew Putnam (-14)
• 2021 – Winner: Hideki Matsuyama (-15); runners-up: Brendan Steele, Cameron Tringale (-10)
• 2020 – Winner: Patrick Cantlay (-23); runners-up: Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas (-22)
• 2019 – Winner: Tiger Woods (-19); runner-up: Hideki Matsuyama (-16)

Collin Morikawa succeeded 2022 champion, Keegan Bradley last year, with his six-stroke victory the most dominant in the short history of the event so far. He returns this week, aiming to become the first two-time winner of the tournament.

THE COURSE

Narashino Country Club was designed by respected Japanese architect, Kinya Fujita and opened in 1965. It previously hosted the Japan Open in 1977, which was won by Seve Ballesteros.

This densely tree-lined course is a 7079-yard par 70 and contains 10x par 4s (363-505 yards), 5x par 3s (141-205 yards) and 3x par 5s (562-608 yards).

It provides a good test, averaging a winning score of -15.75 across the four renewals of the event here, and asks questions of every club in the bag.

The fairways are very narrow, ranking as the sixth-toughest to find on the PGA Tour over the last five years. They dogleg fairly equally in both directions and with trees potentially blocking out approaches into the greens, players will need to tackle them smartly.

As is the case with many courses in Japan, there are two separate greens to the majority of holes.

The bentgrass surfaces are small-average in size and usually receptive. Some of these sloping, often multi-tiered greens are elevated, and the majority are well protected by deep greenside bunkers.

Water adds another element of danger. It is in-play on five holes in total (4, 5, 6, 10, 16) and often hugs the edge of the fairway/green. This includes short of the 5^th hole – a 205-yard par 3 that is the only hole on which both greens will be used this week.

The length of the course is somewhat deceiving, as you have to counter in the fact that not only is there one extra par 3 than you’d typically expect to see but as a collective, they’re short. This is countered by some lengthy par 5s, including the 608-yard 14^th and a challenging selection of par 4s, with five measuring in at over 480 yards, which involves the 505-yard 4^th.

Narashino CC is a straightforward but testing layout that can be turned into a brute if the weather has an impact. The players will be hoping for a generous forecast this week.

THE WEATHER

The forecast looks ideal in Japan, with clear and warm conditions predicted throughout the event. Though winds could gust at upwards of 20mph, general speeds of 4-9mph shouldn’t cause any problems and it will solely be down to the course to defend itself.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation

We’re not fortunate enough to have any strokes-gained data for this event, whilst the stats that are available are incomplete. That being said, the list of winners/contenders here gives us plenty of clues as to who is likely to go well.

With strictly-defined lines of play, this is a course that suits players who are able to execute often the only shots on offer, rather than those creative types who like to have options in how to attack a course. Therefore, I’m going to lean on precision-based ball-strikers, especially those who excel with their irons.

Each of our four winners here, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama and Tiger Woods are/were high-class approach players. It is also an area that runners-up in previous editions, Eric Cole, Rickie Fowler, Andrew Putnam, Cameron Tringale and Brendan Steele have excelled.

Even a player such as Beau Hossler, who has not been famed for his approach play during his career, went into the week with some positive recent form with his irons prior to finishing 2^nd last year.

• SG: Off-the-Tee and/or Driving Accuracy

It's also been an event in which leaderboards have been littered with players who can control their ball off the tee. Collin Morikawa is one of the straightest drivers on tour, whilst Keegan Bradley and Hideki Matsuyama are both players who have been able to marry length with accuracy at their best. Brendan Steele ticks a similar box and although generally an unreliable driver, Eric Cole was very straight with the club when he finished 2^nd last year.

• SG: Putting (bentgrass)

Finally, many strong putters have performed well at Narashino. We should focus especially on those who are able to combine quality ball-striking with a proven ability on bentgrass surfaces.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial Country Club)

With its narrow, winding, tree-lined fairways and bentgrass greens, Colonial Country Club was the standout comp. It also ranks closely to Narashino in most aspects, from average greens-in-regulation percentages to short game difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Collin Morikawa:

ZOZO (1^st) / Charles Schwab (2^nd, 4^th)

Keegan Bradley:

ZOZO (1^st) / Charles Schwab (2^nd)

Andrew Putnam:

ZOZO (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (3^rd)

Rickie Fowler:

ZOZO (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (5^th, 6^th)

Emiliano Grillo:

ZOZO (4^th, 10^th) / Charles Schwab (1^st, 3^rd)

Sebastian Munoz:

ZOZO (4^th) / Charles Schwab (3^rd)

Hayden Buckley:

ZOZO (5^th) / Charles Schwab (5^th)

Robby Shelton:

ZOZO (4^th) / Charles Schwab (9^th)

St Jude Championship (TPC Southwind)

TPC Southwind is another tight, tree-lined course that features plenty of doglegs in both directions. It ranks closely to this week’s host venue in most areas from tee-to-green and can provide us with some helpful pointers.

Notable correlating form:

Hideki Matsuyama:

ZOZO (1^st, 2^nd) / St Jude (1^st, 2^nd)

Collin Morikawa:

ZOZO (1^st) / St Jude (5^th)

Andrew Putnam:

ZOZO (2^nd) / St Jude (2^nd, 5^th)

Billy Horschel:

ZOZO (6^th) / St Jude (4^th, 6^th)

Corey Conners:

ZOZO (6^th) / St Jude (6^th)

Procore Championship (Silverado Resort)

The Silverado resort is a tree-lined course that serves up a similar driving test to Narashino CC, home to some of the narrowest and hardest-to-hit fairways on the PGA Tour. The scrambling challenge also compares closely, which has helped these courses to develop striking form-ties.

Notable correlating form:

Hideki Matsuyama:

ZOZO (1^st, 2^nd) / Procore (3^rd)

Brendan Steele:

ZOZO (2^nd) / Procore (1^st)

Eric Cole:

ZOZO (2^nd) / Procore (4^th)

Sungjae Im:

ZOZO (3^rd) / Procore (4^th)

Emiliano Grillo:

ZOZO (4^th, 10^th) / Procore (1^st)

Mackenzie Hughes:

ZOZO (4^th) / Procore (4^th)

Sahith Theegala:

ZOZO (5^th) / Procore (1^st)

2023 Canadian Open (Oakdale Golf & Country Club)

My final course of interest is Oakdale Golf & Country Club, which hosted last year’s Canadian Open. It produced a very similar tee-to-green test as Narashino CC, with the narrow fairways hard to find, and possessing comparable averages in greens-in-regulation and scrambling into/around the bentgrass greens.

Comp form is a little thin on the ground due to the lack of recent events hosted at each of these two courses, though last year’s ZOZO runner-up, Eric Cole did finish 6^th in Canada. I’d expect firmer form-ties to develop in time.

THE FIELD

This week’s limited 78-man field is headed by world #2 Xander Schauffele, who makes his first tour appearance since the Tour Championship at the end of August. This is also true of the two additional players from inside the top 10, in the shape of our defending champion, Collin Morikawa (#4) and 2021 winner, Hideki Matsuyama (#7).

The field includes eight of the world’s top 50 and 31 of the top 100. Among these players are debutants, Victor Perez and Ryan Fox, as well as home favourite, Ryo Hisatsune.

The event will also welcome 15 players from the JGTO (Japanese Golf Tour). 23-year-old Kensei Hirata is no doubt the standout, as the leader of the tour’s money list thanks to an impressive four victories this season.

ZOZO Championship Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main ZOZO Championship market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Xander Schauffele 18/5, Collin Morikawa 15/2, Hideki Matsuyama 8/1, Sungjae Im 14/1, Sahith Theegala 16/1

The market leaders look a formidable trio to beat. However, with the respective absences of each player, I’m happy to look elsewhere at the prices.

Sahith Theegala, on the other hand, played in the Procore Championship back in September, finishing 7^th and with a good record at Narashino CC he’s taken to get the better of that top 3 this week.

3 pts Sahith Theegala each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 14/1 

Theegala has had an excellent season on the PGA Tour. He’s recorded nine top 10s, which includes finishes of 2^nd in The Sentry and RBC Heritage. Despite not adding a second title following his breakthrough victory last year, his game has improved considerably, and he enters this week ranking 9^th in strokes-gained total on tour.

We’re well aware of his skills with the short game and he’s a player who has generally looked strong with his irons. Indeed, he’s returned to form in this area over his last two starts after a period of underwhelming displays. However, it’s off-the-tee that he’s made the most ground in 2024.

In 2023, he was a lengthy but largely erratic player with driver, ranking 134^th off-the-tee and 172^nd in driving accuracy. Jump forward to this year and he’s 20^th OTT and 89^th in driving accuracy, all while managing to lose absolutely nothing in length. With that newfound control in this area of his game he can enhance an already impressive record in this event.

Theegala made his debut here in 2022, where he responded well from a difficult start to finish 5^th, then returning to finishing a respectable 19^th last year. His first tour victory on a similarly tight and tree-lined course in the Procore Championship is another plus and suggests he can walk away with PGA Tour victory #2 this week.

1.5 pts Si Woo Kim each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 35/1 

Si Woo Kim has arguably played the best and most consistent golf of his career in 2024, though similarly to Theegala, that is yet to translate into a victory. That being said, his precise ball-striking game makes him an ideal match for this setup, and he can put those strengths to good use to chalk up the fifth PGA Tour win of his career in Japan.

Si Woo has missed just two cuts across his 24 starts this year. This has resulted in 12 top-25 finishes, with his best effort coming when 5^th in the BMW Championship on his latest PGA Tour start. Though when we last saw him, he was the International team’s best performing player in the Presidents Cup.

He’s one of the strongest tee-to-green players on tour, ranking 14^th, owing especially to his quality with his ball-striking. His approach play has been a particular standout, ranking 16^th and with a high-quality accuracy-first driving game, ranking 15^th in driving accuracy and 34^th off-the-tee, he certainly hits it well enough to perform here. Whilst the putter is always a slight concern with him and the reason he hasn’t turned that consistent form into another win thus far, he has looked better on the greens lately, including in that Presidents Cup outing.

Kim’s record here is a touch underwhelming, recording finishes of 37^th, 18^th and 45^th. Although, this is the type of course on which he’s performed best throughout his pro career, and I’m convinced he’ll improve that mediocre record. With the way he’s hitting it currently, I fancy him to do so this week.

1 pt Max Homa each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 50/1

Max Homa has seriously regressed with his driver this year, which has eventually seeped into other areas of his game and means he comes into this with a poor sequence of results. He has started to get the club under control in recent starts and after a very encouraging showing at the Presidents Cup, this proven winner looks a tempting price to go well in Japan.

Homa made an impressive start to the season, picking up the best major finish of his career in The Masters back in April, finishing 3^rd. However, his struggles with driver finally caught up with him and he’s effectively been a no-show since finishing 22^nd in the Memorial Tournament in June, failing to record a top-30 finish in his last seven starts.

As mentioned, the driver has been the main cause of this form. It has dragged other areas of his game down after he’d initially looked sound in approach and with the short game in the earlier months.

He had started to get the club under control in his last three tour starts and he continued this into the Presidents Cup. This allowed other areas of his game to go shine and though only winning one of his three matches – in the singles against Mackenzie Hughes – he played well himself and ranked as the strongest iron player in the event.

They may only seem like small crumbs of positivity, but it mean a little more when dealing with a proven winning talent like Homa. If his ball-striking is indeed on the way back he could look a big price in this limited field, on a course at which he finished 46^th on debut in 2019, before becoming the prolific winning machine he now is. Combined with his two successes in the Procore Championship, he made plenty of appeal this week.

1 pt Rickie Fowler each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 70/1

Rickie Fowler is another class act showing signs of life after a generally disappointing year. Unlike Homa, he also has the benefit of a strong piece of form here and he represents good value at a larger price than some much less proven types this week.

Prior to his last two starts, Fowler had only recorded two top-25 finishes this season. He’s doubled that tally in the last two weeks, following a 16^th-place finish in the Sanderson Farms Championship two weeks ago with a 23^rd-place finish in last week’s Shriner’s Open.

He hasn’t necessarily done anything terribly this year, though nor has he done anything especially well, but he has looked very good in most areas across those two most recent starts. His finish in the Sanderson Farms was due to his second-best putting performance of the season and he followed that up with one of his strongest ball-striking displays last week. He ranked 5^th off-the-tee in Vegas, driving it both straight and long, whilst he also ranked 11^th in greens-in-regulation and 21^st in approach. Leading to him ranking 7^th in ball-striking overall.

Fowler now returns to a course at which he finished a close 2^nd in 2022. If able to marry the putting display from the Sanderson Farms with the ball-striking performance from last week, he’d have every chance of again being in the mix at Narashino Country Club.