The Open Championship 2026 Tips: Bobby Mac to break major duck at Birkdale

It’s been a fascinating if far-too-fleeting major season thus far. We went from Rory McIlroy dramatically regaining his Masters title at Augusta, to Aaron Rai producing a blistering back nine to win the PGA Championship at Aronimink, before Wyndham Clark went wire-to-wire to claim a second U.S. Open victory at Shinnecock.

There is room for one more major story to be written in 2026 at arguably the most prestigious of them all, as an elite field heads to Southport for The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale Golf Club.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with his usual long-read preview of the event. He's picked out six players he likes to follow, so check out Jamie's thoughts and his The Open Championship 2026 Betting Tips below...

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TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

Having first been held in 1860, The Open Championship is not only the oldest major championship, but the oldest golf tournament in the world. Always played on British and Irish links courses, it tests players' ability to master golf in its purest, most natural form, and since 1872, the reward for conquering this exacting challenge has been the famous Claret Jug.

A field of just eight players competed at the inaugural Open Championship at Prestwick Golf Club, where Willie Park Sr. won one of his four titles. The field sizes grew gradually over the following years, but it wasn't until Muirfield in 1901 that over 100 players participated in this tournament for the first time.

Harry Vardon is the most decorated player in Open Championship history, winning in 1896, 1898, 1899, 1903, 1911 and 1914 to set the record at six victories. There have also been four five-time winners: James Braid (1901, 1905, 1906, 1908, 1910), J.H. Taylor (1894, 1895, 1900, 1909, 1913), Peter Thomson (1954, 1955, 1956, 1958, 1965) and Tom Watson (1975, 1977, 1980, 1982, 1983).

Tom Watson came extremely close to equalling Vardon's tally in 2009 at Turnberry, where he lost a playoff to Stewart Cink. Had the then 59-year-old been successful, he would've become the oldest major champion of all time.

Last five winners:

• 2025 (Royal Portrush)

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-17)

Runner-up: Harris English (-13)

• 2024 (Royal Troon)

Winner: Xander Schauffele (-9)

Runners-up: Billy Horschel, Justin Rose (-7)

• 2023 (Hoylake)

Winner: Brian Harman (-13)

Runners-up: Jason Day, Tom Kim, Jon Rahm, Sepp Straka (-7)

• 2022 (St Andrews)

Winner: Cameron Smith (-20)

Runner-up: Cameron Young (-19)

• 2021 (Royal St George's)

Winner: Collin Morikawa (-15)

Runner-up: Jordan Spieth (-13)

A fantastic week at Royal Portrush in 2025 ended with a first Open Championship victory for Scottie Scheffler. Taking the lead at the halfway point before stretching the gap to four shots heading into Sunday, Scheffler produced a controlled final-round display to maintain his advantage and lift the Claret Jug for the first time.

THE COURSE

Royal Birkdale Golf Club

• Original architect / Year opened: George Lowe / 1897
• Previous renovations: G. Hawtree and J.H. Taylor remodelled Royal Birkdale in 1930 and it's their version that is the course we see today. Hawtree's son, F.W. Hawtree made some alterations in 1963 and his son, Martin, has also had a hand in its recent history, upgrading in 1993.
• Latest renovation: The design team of Mackenzie and Ebert were appointed to make several changes prior to this year's edition. These include the creation of the brand new risk/reward par-4 5^th, they've shortened and raised the green on the par-3 7^th, the par-5 14^th (previously the 15^th) has been redesigned as a much longer hole, the 15^th is now a monstrous 241-yard par 3, and the tee has been moved further left on the par-4 18^th, making for a straighter, more narrow tee shot.
• Previous Open Championships at Royal Birkdale:
  • 2017 – Winner: Jordan Spieth (-12)
  • 2008 – Winner: Padraig Harrington (+3)
  • 1998 – Winner: Mark O'Meara (E)
  • 1991 – Winner: Ian Baker Finch (-8)
  • 1983 - Winner: Tom Watson (-9)
  • 1976 - Winner: Johnny Miller (-9)
  • 1971 - Winner: Lee Trevino (-6)
  • 1965 - Winner: Peter Thomson (-7)
  • 1961 - Winner: Arnold Palmer (-4)
  • 1954 – Winner: Peter Thomson (-9)
• Par / Yardage: Par 70 / 7,223 yards (67 yards longer than 2017)
• Hole breakdown:
  • 4x par 3s (151-249 yards)
  • 12x par 4s (321-514 yards)
  • 2x par 5s (566-602 yards)
• Course style: Highly regarded traditional links that provides a demanding but fair test. This firm, undulating course has been sculpted through natural valleys, with elevated tees providing expansive views of each hole to allow players to plot their route around the towering dunes
• Fairways:
  • The fairways are largely narrow and feature some severe doglegs
  • With many positioned at any angle to the tee box, they proved extremely difficult to hit in 2017, averaging 47.32% in driving accuracy
  • Punishing pot bunkers litter the landing areas, with fescue rough and dense gorse awaiting the most wayward
• Greens:
  • Showcasing a mix of small and large targets, the contoured greens are around average in size overall
  • They are heavily bunkered, often at the front, placing pressure on players hoping to utilise the traditional bump-and-run
  • Tightly-mown run-offs and false fronts also line the perimeters, and they are surrounded by deep grassy mounds
  • Due to the positioning of the bunkers, alongside the fact that plenty of the putting surfaces are slightly raised, Royal Birkdale is one of the more aerial approach courses on The Open Championship rota
• Defences:
  • Prevailing winds sweeping in from the Irish Sea can cause havoc
  • The combination of wind, sunshine and hot temperatures should make the course ultra-firm
  • Steep-faced pot bunkers, unpredictable fescue rough, and gorse bushes provide those usual links penalties in abundance
• Average winning score: -6.1 across the 10 editions held here

Regularly rated among the very best courses in England, Royal Birkdale Golf Club is known as one of the more honest Open Championship challenges. One where luck plays a smaller role and players get exactly what they deserve, good or bad.

It's been nine years since Jordan Spieth produced a stunning finish to lift the Claret Jug here – going five-under through his final five holes – and whilst several things have changed, the examination will remain largely the same.

This is a venue strewn with quality holes, but it's perhaps the 186-yard par-3 12^th – regarded as one of the best par 3s in the world – that is the most famous. The surrounding dunes create an amphitheatre-like feel around this small, gently contoured green. Four deep, rivet-faced bunkers sit towards the front, and with a steep run-off repelling balls that come up short, the penalty for missing can be severe.

Royal Birkdale rarely disappoints, and we're certain to see another thrilling contest in Southport this week.

THE WEATHER

It's forecast to be a glorious week in Merseyside, with sunshine and temperatures of at least 24°C scheduled each day.

Blustery conditions are predicted for the opening round, blowing at 14mph and gusting at up to 23mph. Although speeds of 7-9mph for the remainder won't be too punishing, things can change quickly and it's always reasonable to expect wind to play its part.

KEY STATS

SG: Approach / Greens-in-Regulation (GIR) / Proximity from 125-150 yards & 175 yards+

SG: Around-the-Greens (SG: ATG) / Scrambling

Every area carries importance on major week, but this is a layout where what you do into and around the greens matters most.

Despite the lack of strokes-gained data for this event specifically, that was certainly evident here in 2017, as winner Jordan Spieth ranked 3^rd in GIR and 4^th in scrambling. Meanwhile, he was 2^nd season-long in SG: Approach on the PGA Tour, and 8^th in SG: ATG.

Runner-up Matt Kuchar was hitting the ball solidly nine years ago, though it was his short game that was his biggest asset, as he ranked 3^rd in scrambling and 7^th in SG: ATG for the season.

SG: Putting

SG: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT) and/or Driving Accuracy

Par 4 Scoring

The putter is always crucial at The Open, whilst you've also got to be in control of the driver into narrow, well-guarded fairways that are difficult to find.

In addition, with par 4s making up two-thirds of the holes, it's imperative to score strongly on them to contend at Royal Birkdale.

CORRELATING EVENTS

Links form is the ultimate pointer for this week and it's worth considering any player who has form at this most natural style of golf, not just at The Open Championship, but at the Scottish Open, Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, and the Irish Open (2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024). That said, some links venues can prove to be a better guide than others.

It could just be that last year's host Royal Portrush is the strongest match. This undulating course weaves its way through valleys framed by imposing sand dunes and, similarly to Royal Birkdale, requires plenty of aerial approaches. Haotong Li has finished inside the top five at each of these Open venues.

Carnoustie (2018) is another tighter course with small greens that mixes a ground game with a more air-based approach. Former Royal Birkdale winners, Padraig Harrington and Tom Watson, have each won there, while the top two from 2017, Jordan Spieth and Matt Kuchar, have finished inside the top 10.

Hosts in 2024 and 2021, Royal Troon and Royal St George's are also worth checking out, as undulating, dunes-framed layouts with comparable tee-to-green numbers.

Away from the U.K, form in the Middle East often transfers to links golf. The Qatar Masters particularly stands out – an event won by Open Championship winners Ernie Els and Paul Lawrie – whilst the Abu Dhabi Championship and Bahrain Championship could also work.

Time to head stateside and there's no stronger comp in this part of the world than Pebble Beach. This coastal course, with its strategic challenge and small greens, has been conquered by many a Royal Birkdale winner, with Jordan Spieth, Mark O'Meara, Tom Watson, and Johnny Miller all recording victories there.

Spieth, Watson and Miller, alongside Arnold Palmer, have all also won by the coast in the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, where the tight fairways and small greens require a similar level of precision in a tree-lined setting. In addition, the largely exposed nature of Cognizant Classic host PGA National has made many a links performer feel at home.

Lastly, I'm viewing any form in Texas as a plus. As events there are often wind-affected, it's no surprise to discover that seven of the nine different players to win at Royal Birkdale have also won in Texas. With its exposed terrain and tricky test around the greens, the Houston Open at Memorial Park may be the best candidate here. However, I wouldn't ignore players who have also gone well at the Texas Open, Charles Schwab Challenge, or the CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

TOURNAMENT TRENDS (2015-2025)

• Previous Open Championship form is often a necessity. Eight of the last 10 champions had a top-10 prior to winning, whilst only two have won on debut in the last 50 years: Ben Curtis (2003) and Collin Morikawa (2021)
• Each of those winners had previously finished 1^st or 2^nd at any of the four majors
• Every winner since 2015 had a PGA Tour victory to their name
• Eight had won earlier in that calendar year
• All arrived at The Open with a top-10 finish across their last three appearances
• Eight hit the top 20 and zero had missed the cut on their latest start
• Each of the last five winners played at the Scottish Open the week prior

THE FIELD

Every member of the world's top 50 will be in attendance in Southport, headed by world No. 1 and defending champion, Scottie Scheffler. Rory McIlroy (No. 2), Matt Fitzpatrick (No. 3) and Cameron Young (No. 4) come next, with Russell Henley (No. 5) rounding out the top five.

Alongside Scheffler, there are a further 14 former winners in the field: Xander Schauffele (2024), Brian Harman (2023), Cameron Smith (2022), Collin Morikawa (2021), Shane Lowry (2019), Francesco Molinari (2018), Jordan Spieth (2017), Henrik Stenson (2016), Rory McIlroy (2014), Darren Clarke (2011), Louis Oosthuizen (2010), Stewart Cink (2009), Padraig Harrington (2008, 2007) and David Duval (2001).

Irishman Stuart Grehan will tee it up after winning the Amateur Championship just a few weeks ago at Royal Liverpool, and the 2025 U.S. Amateur champion Mason Howell will also be in action.

In addition, there were 20 spots up for grabs across final qualifying, where we saw links specialists Matthew Jordan and Matthew Southgate earn their places in the field.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/5, 8 places): Scottie Scheffler 15/2, Rory McIlroy 8/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 14/1, Tommy Fleetwood 16/1, Jon Rahm 22/1, Xander Schauffele 22/1

1.75 pts Robert MacIntyre each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 30/1

Although Robert MacIntyre will have been disappointed to not walk away with a second Scottish Open title last week, it was another extremely encouraging sign that this links specialist is ready to strike in the final major of the year. He hit his irons superbly at The Renaissance Club, and with his short game ticking over nicely, he can provide Scotland with its first major champion in 27 years at Royal Birkdale.

Beginning the season in excellent form – finishing 2^nd at the Texas Open, 4^th at THE PLAYERS Championship, and 4^th at the Sony Open across his first seven starts – MacIntyre then suffered a neck injury prior to The Masters and failed to record a single top 40 in his next six.

Everything suddenly clicked at the Canadian Open a little over a month ago, where he finished 15^th, and he has kicked on since. He was a rock-solid 39^th at the U.S. Open despite not being at his best in approach, following that with a 10^th at the Travelers Championship before finishing 3^rd at the Scottish Open – an event in which he shared the lead after 54 holes.

Ultimately, some loose drives during his front nine in Sunday's final round cost him there. That said, he got it under control on the back nine to end the tournament strongly.

Putting and driving have been his biggest strengths in 2026 – ranking inside the top 20 in both – but it's the upturn he's experienced with the irons that tempts me back in. He was 1^st in both SG: Approach and GIR last week, which came immediately after he was 10^th in each of those areas at TPC River Highlands.

When we also take his tidy short game into account, he's a player thriving throughout the bag.

Hailing from north of the border, it's little surprise that he is so comfortable on the links. He's recorded three top-10s and missed zero cuts at The Open, with his finishes of 6^th (2019) and 7^th (2025) at Royal Portrush especially promising.

Not only a winner of his national championship two years ago, but he also won the Dunhill Links in 2025, and having finished 2^nd at nearby Hillside at the 2019 British Masters, there is every reason to expect MacIntyre to be among the leading contenders in Southport.

1.5 pts Tyrrell Hatton each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 33/1

With two top-10s in three major appearances this season, Tyrrell Hatton is getting ever closer to claiming one of the game’s most highly coveted trophies. As a three-time winner of the Dunhill Links, it’s always felt that this championship represents his best chance and, with recent form strong, he could just break through.

Among some quality form on LIV – where he’s won at Valderrama as well as recording top-five finishes in Adelaide and Mexico City – it’s Hatton’s 3^rd at The Masters that stands out most. It bettered his previous major best of 4^th at last year’s U.S. Open, and he has since backed that up with a 7^th-place finish at links-like Shinnecock at this year’s renewal.

He arrives at Royal Birkdale with four rounds at The Renaissance Club in the bag, where he finished 17^th. Encouragingly, he maintained the turnaround he’s shown on the greens there, ranking 1^st in SG: Putting, and while he struggled in approach, it was also a plus to see him drive the ball a little straighter than recent appearances.

As the 13^th-ranked player in SG: Approach across the last three months, that display with the irons is easy to forgive. Meanwhile, his short game has looked as good as ever over that same period, ranking 3^rd in SG: ATG.

This all adds up to a player who has his game in much better shape than when missing the cut at this layout in 2017. Indeed, he headed to Merseyside having failed to make the weekend in his four prior starts that year.

Hatton has recorded his fair share of missed cuts in this event, but he counters that with five top-20s, including finishing 5^th at Royal Troon in 2016 and 6^th at Royal Portrush in 2019.

Those three Dunhill Links victories are obvious plusses despite the more forgiving nature of the setup, and as someone who is no stranger to winning in extremely challenging conditions, he should be able to handle whatever the weather throws at them on England’s west coast.

1.25 pts Russell Henley each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 40/1

The lack of a warm-up in Scotland would put me off most players, but having skipped that event to then go on and finish 5^th and 10^th at The Open in the last two years, it’s something we don’t need to worry about with Russell Henley. This accurate ball-striker has returned to something nearer his best with the putter, and as a two-time winner in Texas who has also lifted the trophy at a windswept PGA National, he ticks just about every box.

Similarly to Hatton, the highlight of Henley’s season came at Augusta, where he recorded a career-high major finish of 3^rd. He has since won a sixth PGA Tour title in Texas at the Charles Schwab Challenge at the end of May, whilst he was a solid 12^th at the Travelers Championship on his last outing.

Nobody on the PGA Tour is finding more fairways than the American this campaign, whilst he’s also an impressive 3^rd in scrambling and 9^th in par 4 scoring – all stats that bode well for his chances here. Mind you, he’s actually gaining strokes across each area, and with his irons starting to warm up, there’s a lot to like about the state of his game at present.

Henley teed it up here in 2017 – one of 11 Open Championship appearances – and finished a commendable 37^th. That was one of few solid efforts at the event in the early days, though based on his 5^th at Royal Troon in 2024 and 10^th at Royal Portrush 12 months ago, he looks to have finally got the hang of this brand of golf.

Having won a windy edition of the Cognizant Classic (then the Honda Classic) in 2014, the fact it’s taken this long for him to find his feet is the only surprise. His winning Texas form is enhanced by a victory at the Houston Open in 2017, and with a 5^th-place finish at Pebble Beach another positive, he can become the seventh American to tame Royal Birkdale.

1 pt Aaron Rai each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 60/1

In each of the last two seasons, the player who has won the PGA Championship has gone on to win The Open Championship later in the year – Xander Schauffele in 2024 and Scottie Scheffler in 2025. Aaron Rai attempts to continue that trend, and as a links winner who looks to have a game well suited to Royal Birkdale, he can become England’s first Open Championship winner in 34 years.

Rai did little of note at the beginning of the campaign but finally found his stride at the Myrtle Beach Classic in May, finishing 5^th. He was then coolness personified as he won the PGA Championship at Aronimink the following week, producing stunning golf to shoot six-under-par for his final 10 holes and win cosily by three shots.

The Englishman has since hit the top 20 at the Memorial Tournament and again found himself towards the top of the leaderboard at the U.S. Open, finishing 11^th. As a former winner at The Renaissance Club, his missed cut in Scotland was surprising, though having played reasonably well from tee-to-green, I’m happy to forgive him a poor performance on the greens.

That tee-to-green quality has been evident throughout 2026, sitting 22^nd in SG: Tee-to-Green on the PGA Tour. Ranking 10^th in GIR and 23^rd in SG: Approach, it’s his irons that have shone most, especially the wedges, where he sits 11^th from 125-150 yards. He’s also 2^nd to Henley in driving accuracy, and as a consistently sound performer around the greens, his profile fits the demands of this layout.

Rai was 19^th on his Open Championship debut at Royal St George’s in 2021 and has made two cuts in three further attempts, finishing a decent 34^th at Royal Portrush in 2025. He won the Scottish Open in blustery conditions back in 2020, and with his triumph at Yas Links in last year’s Abu Dhabi Championship emphasising his ability to perform on exposed, links-like venues, don’t be shocked to see him in the mix once again.

1 pt Brian Harman each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 90/1

Completing a six-shot demolition of his competitors to walk away with the Claret Jug at Hoylake, Brian Harman has very happy memories of playing in this part of the U.K. His game has been steady in 2026 and, currently striking his irons better than he has for some time, he’s primed to contend for a second Open Championship title.

Harman began the season by missing two of his first three cuts, but has only missed another one in 15 subsequent outings. An 11^th-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship is his standout result, and he’s recorded four further top-25s, the latest of which was a 25^th at the Travelers Championship.

He ranked 4^th in SG: Approach there and again hit them soundly in Scotland on his way to finishing 36^th last week. Wider performances see him rank 22^nd in this area across the last three months, and as someone who excels in that 125-150 yards range, sitting 15^th, and is also a tidy top-50 performer at 200 yards+, he should be able to transfer that to Royal Birkdale.

Combined with his general accuracy off the tee and sharp short game, he’s got the all-round skillset to handle the demands of this layout.

That isn’t instantly evident when looking at his missed cut here in 2017, which came amidst a good run of form. However, his 10^th-place finish at Royal Portrush last year is a positive pointer, and with his latest victory coming in challenging conditions at the Texas Open in 2025, I’m confident he has the tools to vastly improve on his previous visit.

0.75 pts John Parry each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 300/1

Lots of players appealed at three figures, including the debuting U.S. trio of Ryan Gerard, Johnny Keefer, and Sam Stevens. I’ve put them all on the back burner – though one or two may just feature in tomorrow’s specials preview – and am instead taking a punt on resurgent Englishman John Parry at a huge price.

It’s been quite the three years for Parry. Back on the HotelPlanner Tour after an underwhelming stint on the DP World Tour in 2023, he won three times to earn a swift return to the top tier and immediately hit the ground running, winning his first title at that level in 14 years at the Mauritius Open at the end of 2024.

That momentum continued into 2025 as he secured four further top-fours, including finishing 3^rd on the links at the Nexo Championship and Dunhill Links. Ending the year 11^th on the Race to Dubai, he claimed one of those 10 highly sought after PGA Tour cards.

The 39-year-old rookie has grasped this opportunity with both hands in 2026. He made each of his first 13 cuts of the season, picking up a best of 8^th at the Puerto Rico Open – one of four top-20s over that period. Three missed cuts in four appearances represent a drop in form, but amongst that he did finish an excellent 11^th at Shinnecock in the U.S. Open.

He was excellent with the irons and short game there, and he’ll have to replicate that to have a chance of getting in the mix this week. Sitting inside the top 25 in GIR and SG: Approach, he’s certainly capable of doing so in this area. His putting is harder to predict, though it is worth noting that some of his better displays on the greens in recent years have come on links layouts.

That affinity with this style of golf developed during his amateur career and he has looked equally comfortable in the pro ranks. He’s made the cut on both of his Open Championship starts, finishing 62^nd at St Andrews in 2022 before impressing to place 16^th at Royal Portrush in 2025.

Parry’s 3^rd-place finishes at the Nexo Championship and Dunhill Links last year are obvious plus points, as is his top-five at the 2013 Scottish Open. Considering his best displays in 2026 have come on a combination of exposed, coastal courses and in Texas, he’s well worth backing to make some noise at Royal Birkdale.

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